- λ home
- 2.18
- λ away
- 1.07
- Σλ total
- 3.25
- P(over 2.5)
- 63%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.9%
FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
FC Copenhagen v Aarhus: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for FC Copenhagen v Aarhus are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Copenhagen (home) | 1.68 | 1.26 | 0.91 | 1.92 |
| Aarhus (away) | 1.42 | 1.03 | 0.66 | 0.97 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.68 × 1.26 × 0.91 ≈ 1.92
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.89 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.25 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.25 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.18, λaway = 1.07
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.7%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Copenhagen | 58.9% | 64.0% | 56.9% | 61.0% |
| X Draw | 22.9% | 22.0% | 23.6% | 22.7% |
| 2 Aarhus | 18.2% | 14.0% | 19.4% | 16.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.084 → 8.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Copenhagen | 61.0% | 1.64 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -1.1% | |
| X · Draw | 22.7% | 4.41 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -11.5% | |
| 2 · Aarhus | 16.3% | 6.14 | 4.75 | 21.1% | -22.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.7% | 1.19 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -1.2% | |
| X2 | 39.0% | 2.57 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -12.3% | |
| 12 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Copenhagen | 78.9% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Aarhus | 21.1% | 4.75 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.5% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.5% | 6.07 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 37.0% | 2.71 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.9% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 63.3% | 1.58 | 1.62 | 61.7% | +2.6% | |
| BTTS no | 36.7% | 2.73 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -19.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.2% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.1% | 2.77 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.7% | 5.65 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.633 × 1.62 − 1 = +0.026 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.041 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Copenhagen | Aarhus |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLWWW | LWWDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FC Copenhagen at 61%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: FC Copenhagen 1st on 32, Aarhus 8th on 15.
Form
Sequence for FC Copenhagen: W L L W W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–0 at home to SC Braga. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Aarhus have three wins from their last six (L W W D W L). Latest: 0–1 away at Gent. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Copenhagen 2.18 · Aarhus 1.07 · total 3.25. High total: over 2.5 63%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 63%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: FC Copenhagen 2–1 Aarhus. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Superliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 14 | +17 | 32 |
| 2 |  FC Midtjylland | 14 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Viborg | 14 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 14 | +8 | 23 |
| 5 |  Brondby | 14 | +2 | 22 |
| 6 |  Odense | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 7 |  AC Horsens | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 |  Aarhus | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Silkeborg | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lyngby | 14 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Randers FC | 14 | -13 | 11 |
| 12 |  Sonderjyske | 14 | -14 | 9 |
More Superliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Copenhagen v Aarhus probabilities?
FC Copenhagen win 61%, draw 23%, Aarhus win 16%.
What is the most probable score for FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus?
FC Copenhagen 2–1 Aarhus is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus?
FC Copenhagen 2.18, Aarhus 1.07 – over 2.5 at 63%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus?
Sunday 18 October 2026, 17:00 WAT, at Parken Stadium – Superliga.