- λ home
- 1.86
- λ away
- 0.80
- Σλ total
- 2.66
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.0%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai prediction & xG model: FK Zalgiris Vilnius to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
FK Zalgiris Vilnius v Džiugas Telšiai: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFK Zalgiris Vilnius to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for FK Zalgiris Vilnius v Džiugas Telšiai are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (33 and 30 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius (home) | 1.56 | 1.17 | 1.14 | 2.07 |
| Džiugas Telšiai (away) | 1.24 | 1.04 | 0.81 | 1.05 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.56 × 1.17 × 1.14 ≈ 2.07
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.11 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.66 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.66 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.86, λaway = 0.80
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 60.2% | 65.0% | 55.9% | 61.2% |
| X Draw | 21.7% | 25.0% | 24.5% | 24.8% |
| 2 Džiugas Telšiai | 18.2% | 10.0% | 19.7% | 14.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.105 → 10.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius pick | 61.2% | 1.63 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -0.9% | |
| X · Draw | 24.8% | 4.04 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -8.3% | |
| 2 · Džiugas Telšiai | 14.1% | 7.11 | 4.60 | 21.7% | -35.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.9% | 1.16 | 1.17 | 85.5% | +0.5% | |
| X2 | 38.8% | 2.57 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -14.6% | |
| 12 | 75.2% | 1.33 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 81.3% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Džiugas Telšiai | 18.7% | 5.35 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.6% | 3.91 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.7% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.7% | 3.61 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.5% | 1.71 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -5.3% | |
| BTTS no | 41.5% | 2.41 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -10.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.5% | 2.25 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.9% | 6.71 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.612 × 1.62 − 1 = -0.009 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Džiugas Telšiai |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLWWL | LWDLWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 3.17 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 17% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – FK Zalgiris Vilnius 61% to win. Standings: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3rd on 54, Džiugas Telšiai 6th on 42.
Form
Sequence for FK Zalgiris Vilnius: L L L W W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–3 at home to Banga. 2.3 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Džiugas Telšiai, last six: L W D L W D – two wins in total. Latest: 0–2 at home to Suduva Marijampole. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 3: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1, Džiugas Telšiai 1, drawn 1, 2.7 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Jun 2026): Džiugas Telšiai 0–0 FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.86 · Džiugas Telšiai 0.80 · total 2.66. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: FK Zalgiris Vilnius to win, probability 61%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–0 Džiugas Telšiai. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 28 Jun 2026Džiugas Telšiai0–0FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- 26 Apr 2026Džiugas Telšiai0–3FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- 21 Feb 2026FK Zalgiris Vilnius2–3Džiugas Telšiai
A Lyga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 32 | +37 | 58 |
| 2 |  Suduva Marijampole | 32 | +11 | 56 |
| 3 |  FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 32 | +15 | 54 |
| 4 |  TransINVEST Vilnius | 32 | +12 | 52 |
| 5 |  Banga | 32 | +1 | 42 |
| 6 |  Džiugas Telšiai | 32 | -5 | 42 |
| 7 |  Panevėžys | 32 | -14 | 38 |
| 8 |  Hegelmann Litauen | 32 | -25 | 26 |
| 9 |  Šiauliai | 32 | -32 | 24 |
| 10 |  FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 |
More A Lyga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai?
The Model pick is FK Zalgiris Vilnius to win with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the FK Zalgiris Vilnius v Džiugas Telšiai probabilities?
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win 61%, draw 25%, Džiugas Telšiai win 14%.
What is the most probable score for FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai?
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–0 Džiugas Telšiai is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai?
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.86, Džiugas Telšiai 0.80 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai?
Sunday 23 August 2026, 17:30 WAT, at LFF stadionas – A Lyga.