- λ home
- 1.72
- λ away
- 0.76
- Σλ total
- 2.48
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.4%
Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Suduva Marijampole v Panevėžys: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNot both teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Suduva Marijampole v Panevėžys are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (28 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suduva Marijampole (home) | 1.56 | 1.11 | 0.96 | 1.65 |
| Panevėžys (away) | 1.24 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.89 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.56 × 1.11 × 0.96 ≈ 1.65
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.54 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.48 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.48 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.72, λaway = 0.76
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Suduva Marijampole | 54.3% | 65.0% | 59.6% | 62.7% |
| X Draw | 25.8% | 15.0% | 24.2% | 18.8% |
| 2 Panevėžys | 19.9% | 20.0% | 16.3% | 18.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Suduva Marijampole | 62.7% | 1.59 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -5.9% | |
| X · Draw | 18.8% | 5.31 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -30.3% | |
| 2 · Panevėžys | 18.4% | 5.43 | 5.50 | 18.2% | +1.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.6% | 1.23 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -8.6% | |
| X2 | 37.3% | 2.68 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -10.5% | |
| 12 | 81.2% | 1.23 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +1.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Suduva Marijampole | 77.3% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Panevėžys | 22.7% | 4.40 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.1% | 3.43 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.1% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.8% | 4.20 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 45.9% | 2.18 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -15.1% | |
| BTTS no pick | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +0.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.4% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.6% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.9% | 6.69 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.541 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.001 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.001 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Suduva Marijampole | Panevėžys |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDWW | LWDDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Suduva Marijampole at 63%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Suduva Marijampole 2nd on 56, Panevėžys 7th on 38.
Form
Suduva Marijampole have five wins from their last six (W W W D W W). Latest: 2–0 away at Džiugas Telšiai. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average.
Panevėžys, last six: L W D D D L – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Šiauliai. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Previous 2: Suduva Marijampole 1, Panevėžys 0, drawn 1, 1.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Jun 2026): Panevėžys 1–2 Suduva Marijampole. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Suduva Marijampole 1.72 · Panevėžys 0.76 · total 2.48. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 46%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Not both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.85. Most probable score: Suduva Marijampole 1–0 Panevėžys. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 29 Jun 2026Panevėžys1–2Suduva Marijampole
- 22 Feb 2026Panevėžys0–0Suduva Marijampole
A Lyga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 32 | +37 | 58 |
| 2 |  Suduva Marijampole | 32 | +11 | 56 |
| 3 |  FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 32 | +15 | 54 |
| 4 |  TransINVEST Vilnius | 32 | +12 | 52 |
| 5 |  Banga | 32 | +1 | 42 |
| 6 |  Džiugas Telšiai | 32 | -5 | 42 |
| 7 |  Panevėžys | 32 | -14 | 38 |
| 8 |  Hegelmann Litauen | 32 | -25 | 26 |
| 9 |  Šiauliai | 32 | -32 | 24 |
| 10 |  FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 |
More A Lyga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Suduva Marijampole v Panevėžys probabilities?
Suduva Marijampole win 63%, draw 19%, Panevėžys win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys?
Suduva Marijampole 1–0 Panevėžys is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys?
Suduva Marijampole 1.72, Panevėžys 0.76 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys?
Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:45 WAT, at Marijampole Football Arena – A Lyga.