- λ home
- 0.76
- λ away
- 1.74
- Σλ total
- 2.50
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 0–1 14.3%
Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga prediction & xG model: Banga to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Hegelmann Litauen v Banga: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBanga to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Hegelmann Litauen v Banga are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (29 and 30 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hegelmann Litauen (home) | 1.56 | 0.83 | 0.87 | 1.12 |
| Banga (away) | 1.24 | 0.95 | 1.22 | 1.44 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.56 × 0.83 × 0.87 ≈ 1.12
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.56 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.50 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.76, λaway = 1.74
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 15.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 60.9%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 14.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Hegelmann Litauen | 28.9% | 8.0% | 25.5% | 15.3% |
| X Draw | 27.6% | 21.0% | 28.8% | 24.3% |
| 2 Banga | 43.5% | 71.0% | 45.7% | 60.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Hegelmann Litauen | 15.3% | 6.52 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -46.3% | |
| X · Draw | 24.3% | 4.12 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -24.8% | |
| 2 · Banga pick | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +17.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 39.6% | 2.52 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -30.7% | |
| X2 | 84.7% | 1.18 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +5.8% | |
| 12 | 75.7% | 1.32 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -1.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Hegelmann Litauen | 20.3% | 4.94 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Banga | 79.7% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.6% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.2% | 4.13 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.3% | 1.78 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -1.4% | |
| BTTS no | 43.7% | 2.29 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -16.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.8% | 6.75 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.4% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 42.8% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.604 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.178 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.187 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Hegelmann Litauen | Banga |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLWLL | WLWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-0-5 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Banga 60%, Hegelmann Litauen 15%. Standings: Hegelmann Litauen 8th on 26, Banga 5th on 42.
Form
Sequence for Hegelmann Litauen: L L L W L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–2 away at Kauno Žalgiris. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.5 conceded.
Sequence for Banga: W L W L W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–2 away at FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Previous 3: Hegelmann Litauen 0, Banga 3, drawn 0, 2.3 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Jun 2026): Banga 2–0 Hegelmann Litauen. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Hegelmann Litauen 0.76 · Banga 1.74 · total 2.50. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Banga to win, probability 60%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.66. Most probable score: Hegelmann Litauen 0–1 Banga. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 28 Jun 2026Banga2–0Hegelmann Litauen
- 26 Apr 2026Banga2–1Hegelmann Litauen
- 22 Feb 2026Hegelmann Litauen0–2Banga
A Lyga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 32 | +37 | 58 |
| 2 |  Suduva Marijampole | 32 | +11 | 56 |
| 3 |  FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 32 | +15 | 54 |
| 4 |  TransINVEST Vilnius | 32 | +12 | 52 |
| 5 |  Banga | 32 | +1 | 42 |
| 6 |  Džiugas Telšiai | 32 | -5 | 42 |
| 7 |  Panevėžys | 32 | -14 | 38 |
| 8 |  Hegelmann Litauen | 32 | -25 | 26 |
| 9 |  Šiauliai | 32 | -32 | 24 |
| 10 |  FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 |
More A Lyga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga?
The Model pick is Banga to win with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Hegelmann Litauen v Banga probabilities?
Hegelmann Litauen win 15%, draw 24%, Banga win 60%.
What is the most probable score for Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga?
Hegelmann Litauen 0–1 Banga is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga?
Hegelmann Litauen 0.76, Banga 1.74 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga?
Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:30 WAT, at Raudondvario stadionas – A Lyga.