- λ home
- 1.85
- λ away
- 0.82
- Σλ total
- 2.67
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.8%
Zambia vs Burundi prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Zambia v Burundi: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Zambia v Burundi are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (4 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zambia (home) | 1.66 | 0.97 | 0.86 | – |
| Burundi (away) | 1.38 | 1.04 | 0.99 | – |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.97 × 0.86 ≈ –
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.17 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.25 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.67 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.85, λaway = 0.82
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 61.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Zambia | – | 63.0% | 55.8% | 60.0% |
| X Draw | – | 25.0% | 26.9% | 25.8% |
| 2 Burundi | – | 12.0% | 17.2% | 14.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.079 → 7.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Zambia | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -0.4% | |
| X · Draw | 25.8% | 3.87 | 3.44 | 29.1% | -11.2% | |
| 2 · Burundi | 14.2% | 7.04 | 5.38 | 18.6% | -23.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.8% | 1.17 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -4.8% | |
| X2 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.11 | 47.4% | -15.6% | |
| 12 | 74.2% | 1.35 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -6.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Zambia | 80.9% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Burundi | 19.1% | 5.23 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.1% | 1.45 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -1.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.9% | 3.24 | 2.49 | 40.2% | -23.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.5% | 2.25 | 2.38 | 42.0% | +5.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -15.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.4% | 4.10 | 4.33 | 23.1% | +5.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -13.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 50.5% | 1.98 | 2.24 | 44.6% | +13.1% | |
| BTTS no | 49.5% | 2.02 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -21.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.0% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.3% | 6.53 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.505 × 2.24 − 1 = +0.131 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.106 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 4 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Zambia | Burundi |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLL | DLWW |
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| W-D-L | 1-0-2 | 2-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.67 | 0.75 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 75% |
| BTTS | 33% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 25% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Zambia 60%, draw 26%, Burundi 14%. Standings: Zambia 1st on 13, Burundi 4th on 4.
Form
Sequence for Zambia: W L L, so one victory in three. Latest: 2–0 at home to Togo. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.7 conceded.
Sequence for Burundi: D L W W, so two victories in four. Latest: 2–2 at home to Algeria. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Zambia 1.85 · Burundi 0.82 · total 2.67. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 50%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 50%, odds 2.24 v fair 1.98. Most probable score: Zambia 2–1 Burundi. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zambia | 6 | +3 | 13 |
| 2 |  Ivory Coast | 6 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Sierra Leone | 6 | -5 | 5 |
| 4 |  Chad | 6 | -7 | 3 |
More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions
League page →
Comoros0
Congo0
Mozambique0
Ethiopia1
Burkina Faso1
Mauritania0
Cape Verde Islands4
Liberia2
Gabon2
Lesotho0
Nigeria3
Tanzania1
South Africa2
Kenya2
Tunisia0
Libya2Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Zambia vs Burundi?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 50, priced around 2.24 by the bookmakers.
What are the Zambia v Burundi probabilities?
Zambia win 60%, draw 26%, Burundi win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Zambia vs Burundi?
Zambia 2–1 Burundi is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Zambia vs Burundi?
Zambia 1.85, Burundi 0.82 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Zambia vs Burundi?
Friday 13 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Levy Mwanawasa Stadium – Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification.