- λ home
- 1.47
- λ away
- 0.63
- Σλ total
- 2.10
- P(over 2.5)
- 36%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–0 18.0%
Comoros vs Congo prediction & xG model: Comoros to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Comoros v Congo: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipComoros to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Comoros v Congo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (6 and 3 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comoros (home) | 1.66 | 0.68 | 0.82 | – |
| Congo (away) | 1.38 | 0.73 | 0.82 | – |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.68 × 0.82 ≈ –
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.18 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.10 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.47, λaway = 0.63
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 18.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Comoros | – | 62.0% | 51.8% | 57.7% |
| X Draw | – | 25.0% | 28.5% | 26.5% |
| 2 Congo | – | 13.0% | 19.7% | 15.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.079 → 7.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Comoros pick | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.79 | 55.9% | +3.3% | |
| X · Draw | 26.5% | 3.78 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -14.0% | |
| 2 · Congo | 15.8% | 6.32 | 4.70 | 21.3% | -25.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.2% | 1.19 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -3.2% | |
| X2 | 42.3% | 2.36 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -18.4% | |
| 12 | 73.5% | 1.36 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -5.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Comoros | 78.5% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Congo | 21.5% | 4.65 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -7.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 37.5% | 2.66 | 2.51 | 39.8% | -5.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36.1% | 2.77 | 2.43 | 41.2% | -12.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 63.9% | 1.57 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -8.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 17.3% | 5.78 | 4.90 | 20.4% | -15.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 82.7% | 1.21 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -8.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.8% | 2.05 | 2.24 | 44.6% | +9.2% | |
| BTTS no | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -19.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.1% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.1% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.7% | 7.28 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.577 × 1.79 − 1 = +0.033 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.042 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 5 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Comoros | Congo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWL | DL |
| Matches | 5 | 2 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-3 | 0-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 0% |
| BTTS | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Comoros 58%, draw 26%, Congo 16%. Standings: Comoros 1st on 12, Congo 3rd on 4.
Form
Comoros, last five: L W L W L – two wins in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Senegal. Only 0.6 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Comoros 1.47 · Congo 0.63 · total 2.10. Low total: under 2.5 64%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Comoros to win, probability 58%, odds 1.79 v fair 1.73. Most probable score: Comoros 1–0 Congo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Comoros | 6 | +3 | 12 |
| 2 |  Tunisia | 6 | +1 | 10 |
| 3 |  Gambia | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 |  Madagascar | 6 | -4 | 2 |
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Libya2Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Comoros vs Congo?
The Model pick is Comoros to win with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.79 by the bookmakers.
What are the Comoros v Congo probabilities?
Comoros win 58%, draw 26%, Congo win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Comoros vs Congo?
Comoros 1–0 Congo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Comoros vs Congo?
Comoros 1.47, Congo 0.63 – over 2.5 at 36%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Comoros vs Congo?
Friday 13 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Stade omnisports de Malouzini – Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification.