- λ home
- 2.03
- λ away
- 0.53
- Σλ total
- 2.56
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 2–0 16.0%
Tunisia vs Libya prediction & xG model: Tunisia to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Tunisia v Libya: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipTunisia to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
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How the numbers for Tunisia v Libya are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.75 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.39 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.56 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.03, λaway = 0.53
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 73.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 8.5%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 16.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tunisia | – | 74.0% | 69.1% | 71.9% |
| X Draw | – | 20.0% | 21.5% | 20.6% |
| 2 Libya | – | 6.0% | 9.4% | 7.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.073 → 7.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tunisia pick | 71.9% | 1.39 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -2.9% | |
| X · Draw | 20.6% | 4.84 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -10.6% | |
| 2 · Libya | 7.4% | 13.45 | 9.90 | 10.1% | -26.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 92.6% | 1.08 | 1.02 | 98.0% | -5.6% | |
| X2 | 28.1% | 3.56 | 2.95 | 33.9% | -17.2% | |
| 12 | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -7.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tunisia | 90.6% | 1.10 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Libya | 9.4% | 10.67 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -6.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.1% | 3.33 | 2.78 | 36.0% | -16.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.0% | 2.22 | 2.17 | 46.1% | -2.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -10.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.4% | 4.10 | 3.88 | 25.8% | -5.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -10.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.1% | 2.08 | 2.58 | 38.8% | +24.2% | |
| BTTS no | 51.9% | 1.93 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -25.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 51.1% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.6% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 9.3% | 10.71 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.719 × 1.35 − 1 = -0.029 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tunisia | Libya |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLLLL | LDDD |
| Matches | 6 | 4 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 0-3-1 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 3.33 | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Tunisia at 72%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Tunisia 2nd on 10, Libya 4th on 5.
Form
Sequence for Tunisia: D D L L L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 2–2 away at Botswana. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Libya have zero wins from their last four (L D D D). Latest: 0–1 away at Uganda. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tunisia 2.03 · Libya 0.53 · total 2.56. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 48%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Tunisia to win, probability 72%, odds 1.35 v fair 1.39. Most probable score: Tunisia 2–0 Libya. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Comoros | 6 | +3 | 12 |
| 2 |  Tunisia | 6 | +1 | 10 |
| 3 |  Gambia | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 |  Madagascar | 6 | -4 | 2 |
More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions
League page →
Congo0
Mozambique0
Ethiopia1
Zambia1
Burundi1
Burkina Faso1
Mauritania0
Cape Verde Islands4
Liberia2
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Lesotho0
Nigeria3
Tanzania1
South Africa2
Kenya2Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tunisia vs Libya?
The Model pick is Tunisia to win with a model probability of 72, priced around 1.35 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tunisia v Libya probabilities?
Tunisia win 72%, draw 21%, Libya win 7%.
What is the most probable score for Tunisia vs Libya?
Tunisia 2–0 Libya is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tunisia vs Libya?
Tunisia 2.03, Libya 0.53 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Tunisia vs Libya?
Friday 13 November 2026, 17:00 WAT, at Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi – Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification.