Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification Fri 13 Nov 2026 · Godswill Akpabio International Stadium Full time

Nigeria

DLWLD

3–1

Half-time 1–1

Tanzania

LWLD

75%P(1)18%P(X)7%P(2)

λ home: 2.17
λ away: 0.54
Σλ total: 2.70
P(over 2.5): 53%
P(BTTS): 45%
Modal score: 2–0 15.7%

Nigeria vs Tanzania prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Nigeria v Tanzania: how the Arena called it

Full time: 3–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Nigeria v Tanzania are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	2.50	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.87	55%
Blended total λ	2.70	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.17, λ_away = 0.54

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Nigeria λ = 2.17

011.5%

124.8%

226.9%

319.4%

410.5%

5+6.9%

Tanzania λ = 0.54

058.5%

131.4%

28.4%

31.5%

40.2%

5+0.0%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Nig \ Tan012345+

06.73.61.0···

1157.82.1···

2168.42.3···

3116.11.6···

46.23.30.9···

5+4.02.20.6···

Σ home-win cells: 75.2%
Σ draw cells: 17.1%
Σ away-win cells: 7.8%
Most probable score: 2–0 · 15.7%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Nigeria	–	71.0%	79.4%	74.5%
X Draw	–	21.0%	14.6%	18.3%
2 Tanzania	–	8.0%	6.0%	7.2%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.077 → 7.7% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Nigeria	74.5%	1.34	1.17	85.5%	-12.8%
X · Draw	18.3%	5.46	6.35	15.7%	+16.4%
2 · Tanzania	7.2%	13.97	15.50	6.5%	+10.9%
Double chance
1X	92.8%	1.08	1.03	97.1%	-4.4%
X2	25.5%	3.92	4.55	22.0%	+15.9%
12	81.7%	1.22	1.08	92.6%	-11.8%
Draw no bet
DNB Nigeria	91.2%	1.10	–	–	–
DNB Tanzania	8.8%	11.41	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	75.9%	1.32	1.18	84.7%	-10.4%
Under 1.5	24.1%	4.16	3.88	25.8%	-6.6%
Over 2.5	52.8%	1.90	1.70	58.8%	-10.3%
Under 2.5	47.2%	2.12	2.06	48.5%	-2.7%
Over 3.5	31.3%	3.19	2.66	37.6%	-16.7%
Under 3.5 pick	68.7%	1.46	1.37	73.0%	-5.9%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	45.3%	2.21	2.64	37.9%	+19.5%
BTTS no	54.7%	1.83	1.42	70.4%	-22.3%
Half-time
HT 1	53.3%	1.88	–	–	–
HT X	37.7%	2.65	–	–	–
HT 2	9.0%	11.09	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickUnder 3.5 goals

Probability68.7%

Fair odds1.46

Best odds1.37

EV per unit-5.9%

EV = 0.687 × 1.37 − 1 = -0.059 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Nigeria	Tanzania
Sequence	DLWLDW	DLWL
Matches	6	4
W-D-L	2-2-2	1-1-2
Points per match	1.33	1.00
Goals for / match	1.67	1.75
Goals against / match	1.83	1.00
Over 2.5	83%	25%
BTTS	67%	25%
Clean sheets	17%	25%
Failed to score	17%	50%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Strong home favourites – Nigeria 75% to win. Standings: Nigeria 1st on 11, Tanzania 2nd on 10.

Form

Nigeria, last six: D L W L D W – two wins in total. Latest: 3–3 away at Russia. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded.

Sequence for Tanzania: D L W L, so one victory in four. Latest: 1–1 away at Madagascar. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Nigeria 2.17 · Tanzania 0.54 · total 2.70. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 45%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 69%, odds 1.37 v fair 1.46. Most probable score: Nigeria 2–0 Tanzania. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.