- λ home
- 1.51
- λ away
- 1.54
- Σλ total
- 3.06
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.0%
Paide vs Flora Tallinn prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Paide v Flora Tallinn: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Paide v Flora Tallinn are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (46 and 44 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paide (home) | 1.66 | 1.28 | 0.75 | 1.59 |
| Flora Tallinn (away) | 1.38 | 1.64 | 0.56 | 1.27 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.28 × 0.75 ≈ 1.59
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.86 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.10 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.06 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.51, λaway = 1.54
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Paide | 44.3% | 42.0% | 36.0% | 39.5% |
| X Draw | 25.8% | 16.0% | 25.0% | 19.8% |
| 2 Flora Tallinn | 30.0% | 42.0% | 39.1% | 40.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Paide | 39.5% | 2.53 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -1.3% | |
| X · Draw | 19.8% | 5.06 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -28.8% | |
| 2 · Flora Tallinn | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -6.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -11.2% | |
| X2 | 60.5% | 1.65 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -12.8% | |
| 12 | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -2.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Paide | 49.2% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Flora Tallinn | 50.8% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -6.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 5.03 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -10.6% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -6.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 40.6% | 2.47 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -4.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.8% | 2.64 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -10.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -4.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 63.3% | 1.58 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -5.1% | |
| BTTS no | 36.7% | 2.72 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -8.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.0% | 3.34 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.2% | 2.55 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.8% | 3.25 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.594 × 1.57 − 1 = -0.067 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Paide | Flora Tallinn |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWWWL | WWLLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 2.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 39 / 20 / 41% for home, draw, away. Standings: Paide 2nd on 64, Flora Tallinn 3rd on 62.
Form
Paide have four wins from their last six (W L W W W L). Latest: 1–0 away at Vaprus. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Flora Tallinn have three wins from their last six (W W L L W L). Latest: 2–0 at home to Trans Narva. 2.8 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Previous 3: Paide 2, Flora Tallinn 1, drawn 0, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Aug 2026): Flora Tallinn 1–2 Paide. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Paide 1.51 · Flora Tallinn 1.54 · total 3.06. High total: over 2.5 59%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 59%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: Paide 1–2 Flora Tallinn. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 30 Aug 2026Flora Tallinn1–2Paide
- 21 Jun 2026Flora Tallinn1–2Paide
- 26 Apr 2026Paide1–2Flora Tallinn
Meistriliiga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 36 | +68 | 91 |
| 2 |  Paide | 36 | +13 | 64 |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn | 36 | +17 | 62 |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 36 | +25 | 61 |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 36 | -10 | 53 |
| 6 |  Laagri | 36 | -4 | 47 |
| 7 |  Vaprus | 36 | -18 | 40 |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 36 | -22 | 38 |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 36 | -19 | 37 |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 36 | -50 | 23 |
More Meistriliiga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Paide vs Flora Tallinn?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the Paide v Flora Tallinn probabilities?
Paide win 39%, draw 20%, Flora Tallinn win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Paide vs Flora Tallinn?
Paide 1–2 Flora Tallinn is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Paide vs Flora Tallinn?
Paide 1.51, Flora Tallinn 1.54 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Paide vs Flora Tallinn?
Saturday 7 November 2026, 11:30 WAT, at Paide linnastaadion – Meistriliiga.