- λ home
- 2.09
- λ away
- 1.05
- Σλ total
- 3.14
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.9%
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme prediction & xG model: FC Levadia Tallinn to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
FC Levadia Tallinn v Kalju Nomme: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFC Levadia Tallinn to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FC Levadia Tallinn v Kalju Nomme are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (40 and 44 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Levadia Tallinn (home) | 1.66 | 2.28 | 0.57 | 2.18 |
| Kalju Nomme (away) | 1.38 | 1.54 | 0.43 | 0.91 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 2.28 × 0.57 ≈ 2.18
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.09 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.07 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.20 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.14 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.09, λaway = 1.05
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 61.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.3%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Levadia Tallinn | 65.5% | 68.0% | 54.9% | 62.5% |
| X Draw | 20.2% | 15.0% | 21.8% | 17.9% |
| 2 Kalju Nomme | 14.3% | 17.0% | 23.3% | 19.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Levadia Tallinn pick | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.63 | 61.3% | +1.9% | |
| X · Draw | 17.9% | 5.60 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -26.8% | |
| 2 · Kalju Nomme | 19.6% | 5.09 | 3.84 | 26.0% | -24.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 80.4% | 1.24 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -6.0% | |
| X2 | 37.5% | 2.67 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -25.4% | |
| 12 | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -6.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Levadia Tallinn | 76.1% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kalju Nomme | 23.9% | 4.18 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.8% | 1.22 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -9.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.2% | 5.50 | 4.90 | 20.4% | -10.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -10.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -8.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -10.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -6.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -10.1% | |
| BTTS no | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.32 | 43.1% | -6.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.1% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.0% | 2.70 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.9% | 5.58 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.625 × 1.63 − 1 = +0.019 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.030 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Levadia Tallinn | Kalju Nomme |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWWW | WWWLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 6-0-0 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 3.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FC Levadia Tallinn at 62%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: FC Levadia Tallinn 1st on 91, Kalju Nomme 4th on 61.
Form
Sequence for FC Levadia Tallinn: W W W W W W, so six victories in six. Latest: 4–3 away at Nõmme United. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average.
Kalju Nomme, last six: W W W L D L – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Kuressaare. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 3: FC Levadia Tallinn 1, Kalju Nomme 0, drawn 2, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Aug 2026): Kalju Nomme 2–3 FC Levadia Tallinn. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Levadia Tallinn 2.09 · Kalju Nomme 1.05 · total 3.14. High total: over 2.5 61%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: FC Levadia Tallinn to win, probability 62%, odds 1.63 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: FC Levadia Tallinn 2–1 Kalju Nomme. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 30 Aug 2026Kalju Nomme2–3FC Levadia Tallinn
- 20 Jun 2026FC Levadia Tallinn1–1Kalju Nomme
- 12 Apr 2026Kalju Nomme1–1FC Levadia Tallinn
Meistriliiga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 36 | +68 | 91 |
| 2 |  Paide | 36 | +13 | 64 |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn | 36 | +17 | 62 |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 36 | +25 | 61 |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 36 | -10 | 53 |
| 6 |  Laagri | 36 | -4 | 47 |
| 7 |  Vaprus | 36 | -18 | 40 |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 36 | -22 | 38 |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 36 | -19 | 37 |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 36 | -50 | 23 |
More Meistriliiga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme?
The Model pick is FC Levadia Tallinn to win with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.63 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Levadia Tallinn v Kalju Nomme probabilities?
FC Levadia Tallinn win 62%, draw 18%, Kalju Nomme win 20%.
What is the most probable score for FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme?
FC Levadia Tallinn 2–1 Kalju Nomme is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme?
FC Levadia Tallinn 2.09, Kalju Nomme 1.05 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme?
Saturday 7 November 2026, 11:30 WAT, at A. Le Coq Arena – Meistriliiga.