- λ home
- 1.87
- λ away
- 1.50
- Σλ total
- 3.37
- P(over 2.5)
- 65%
- P(BTTS)
- 67%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.6%
Tammeka vs Nõmme United prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Tammeka v Nõmme United: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Tammeka v Nõmme United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.43 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.32 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.37 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.87, λaway = 1.50
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 46.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.6%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tammeka | – | 50.0% | 45.1% | 48.0% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 23.8% | 19.3% |
| 2 Nõmme United | – | 34.0% | 31.1% | 32.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.108 → 10.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tammeka | 48.0% | 2.09 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -4.1% | |
| X · Draw | 19.3% | 5.19 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -26.8% | |
| 2 · Nõmme United | 32.8% | 3.05 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -4.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 67.2% | 1.49 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -12.6% | |
| X2 | 52.0% | 1.92 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -11.5% | |
| 12 | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -3.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tammeka | 59.4% | 1.68 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Nõmme United | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 84.0% | 1.19 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -5.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.0% | 6.27 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -12.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -6.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 35.0% | 2.86 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -8.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 45.0% | 2.22 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -10.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -4.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 66.7% | 1.50 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -6.7% | |
| BTTS no | 33.3% | 3.00 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -8.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 36.3% | 2.75 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.8% | 2.72 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.9% | 3.72 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.667 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.067 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tammeka | Nõmme United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLWLW | LLWLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Tammeka ahead at 48%, against 33% for Nõmme United and 19% for the draw. Standings: Tammeka 5th on 53, Nõmme United 8th on 38.
Form
Sequence for Tammeka: W L L W L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 4–1 at home to Viimsi. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Nõmme United have two wins from their last six (L L W L W L). Latest: 1–3 at home to Paide. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Tammeka 2, Nõmme United 0, drawn 0, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Aug 2026): Nõmme United 0–1 Tammeka. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tammeka 1.87 · Nõmme United 1.50 · total 3.37. Goals expected – 65% for over 2.5 and 67% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 67%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.50. Most probable score: Tammeka 2–1 Nõmme United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 14 Aug 2026Nõmme United0–1Tammeka
- 21 Mar 2026Nõmme United2–3Tammeka
Meistriliiga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 36 | +68 | 91 |
| 2 |  Paide | 36 | +13 | 64 |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn | 36 | +17 | 62 |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 36 | +25 | 61 |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 36 | -10 | 53 |
| 6 |  Laagri | 36 | -4 | 47 |
| 7 |  Vaprus | 36 | -18 | 40 |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 36 | -22 | 38 |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 36 | -19 | 37 |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 36 | -50 | 23 |
More Meistriliiga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tammeka vs Nõmme United?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tammeka v Nõmme United probabilities?
Tammeka win 48%, draw 19%, Nõmme United win 33%.
What is the most probable score for Tammeka vs Nõmme United?
Tammeka 2–1 Nõmme United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tammeka vs Nõmme United?
Tammeka 1.87, Nõmme United 1.50 – over 2.5 at 65%, BTTS at 67%.
What time is Tammeka vs Nõmme United?
Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Tamme Stadium – Meistriliiga.