- λ home
- 1.62
- λ away
- 1.54
- Σλ total
- 3.16
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.6%
Vaprus vs Trans Narva prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Vaprus v Trans Narva: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Vaprus v Trans Narva are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (35 and 37 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaprus (home) | 1.66 | 1.45 | 0.78 | 1.87 |
| Trans Narva (away) | 1.38 | 1.13 | 0.84 | 1.31 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.45 × 0.78 ≈ 1.87
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.18 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.16 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.16 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.62, λaway = 1.54
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 39.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Vaprus | 50.1% | 44.0% | 36.0% | 40.6% |
| X Draw | 23.5% | 18.0% | 28.1% | 22.2% |
| 2 Trans Narva | 26.4% | 38.0% | 36.0% | 37.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Vaprus | 40.6% | 2.46 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +1.6% | |
| X · Draw | 22.2% | 4.50 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -28.8% | |
| 2 · Trans Narva | 37.1% | 2.69 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -7.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -9.5% | |
| X2 | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -10.9% | |
| 12 | 77.8% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +1.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Vaprus | 52.2% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Trans Narva | 47.8% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.4% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.6% | 5.67 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.8% | 2.58 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 38.9% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -6.7% | |
| BTTS no | 37.8% | 2.64 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -9.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.8% | 3.14 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.5% | 2.60 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.7% | 3.37 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.622 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.067 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Vaprus | Trans Narva |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLWWL | DLDLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 41 / 22 / 37% for home, draw, away. Standings: Vaprus 7th on 40, Trans Narva 10th on 23.
Form
Sequence for Vaprus: L L L W W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–3 away at Flora Tallinn. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded.
Trans Narva have one win from their last six (D L D L L W). Latest: 1–1 at home to FC Levadia Tallinn. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 2: Vaprus 0, Trans Narva 2, drawn 0, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Jul 2026): Trans Narva 3–1 Vaprus. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Vaprus 1.62 · Trans Narva 1.54 · total 3.16. High total: over 2.5 61%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: Vaprus 2–1 Trans Narva. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 18 Jul 2026Trans Narva3–1Vaprus
- 15 Feb 2026Vaprus0–2Trans Narva
Meistriliiga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 36 | +68 | 91 |
| 2 |  Paide | 36 | +13 | 64 |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn | 36 | +17 | 62 |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 36 | +25 | 61 |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 36 | -10 | 53 |
| 6 |  Laagri | 36 | -4 | 47 |
| 7 |  Vaprus | 36 | -18 | 40 |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 36 | -22 | 38 |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 36 | -19 | 37 |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 36 | -50 | 23 |
More Meistriliiga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Vaprus vs Trans Narva?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Vaprus v Trans Narva probabilities?
Vaprus win 41%, draw 22%, Trans Narva win 37%.
What is the most probable score for Vaprus vs Trans Narva?
Vaprus 2–1 Trans Narva is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Vaprus vs Trans Narva?
Vaprus 1.62, Trans Narva 1.54 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Vaprus vs Trans Narva?
Saturday 10 October 2026, 12:30 WAT, at Parnu Rannastaadion – Meistriliiga.