- λ home
- 1.37
- λ away
- 1.71
- Σλ total
- 3.08
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 66%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.8%
Start vs Lillestrom prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Start v Lillestrom: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Start v Lillestrom are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.08 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 3.08 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.37, λaway = 1.71
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 45.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Start | – | 31.0% | 33.7% | 32.1% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 26.8% | 21.1% |
| 2 Lillestrom | – | 52.0% | 39.6% | 46.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.099 → 9.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Start | 32.1% | 3.11 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -13.2% | |
| X · Draw | 21.1% | 4.74 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -28.3% | |
| 2 · Lillestrom | 46.8% | 2.14 | 2.30 | 43.5% | +7.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -17.5% | |
| X2 | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -5.0% | |
| 12 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +1.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Start | 40.7% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Lillestrom | 59.3% | 1.69 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.2% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.8% | 5.33 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 40.6% | 2.47 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.1% | 2.70 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -5.7% | |
| BTTS no | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -13.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.0% | 3.84 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.9% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 35.1% | 2.85 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.655 × 1.44 − 1 = -0.057 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Start | Lillestrom |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLWLW | WWLWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 47% against 32%. Standings: Start 16th on 19, Lillestrom 4th on 45.
Form
Start, last six: W L L W L W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Sandefjord. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
Lillestrom have three wins from their last six (W W L W D D). Latest: 2–1 at home to Sogndal. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Start 1.37 · Lillestrom 1.71 · total 3.08. High total: over 2.5 59%, BTTS 66%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 66%, odds 1.44 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: Start 1–2 Lillestrom. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Eliteserien table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 26 | +42 | 62 |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 26 | +40 | 62 |
| 3 |  Rosenborg | 26 | +21 | 46 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 26 | +4 | 45 |
| 5 |  Molde | 26 | +20 | 44 |
| 6 |  Tromso | 26 | +3 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 26 | +3 | 33 |
| 8 |  Valerenga | 26 | -4 | 32 |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 26 | -10 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 26 | -13 | 31 |
| 11 |  Ham-Kam | 26 | -15 | 30 |
| 12 |  Fredrikstad | 26 | -15 | 30 |
| 13 |  Sandefjord | 26 | -8 | 28 |
| 14 |  Kristiansund BK | 26 | -21 | 26 |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 26 | -15 | 24 |
| 16 |  Start | 26 | -32 | 19 |
More Eliteserien predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Start vs Lillestrom?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.44 by the bookmakers.
What are the Start v Lillestrom probabilities?
Start win 32%, draw 21%, Lillestrom win 47%.
What is the most probable score for Start vs Lillestrom?
Start 1–2 Lillestrom is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Start vs Lillestrom?
Start 1.37, Lillestrom 1.71 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 66%.
What time is Start vs Lillestrom?
Sunday 1 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Eliteserien.