- λ home
- 1.57
- λ away
- 2.08
- Σλ total
- 3.65
- P(over 2.5)
- 71%
- P(BTTS)
- 71%
- Modal score
- 1–2 8.8%
Brann vs Molde prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Brann v Molde: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Brann v Molde are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.65 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 3.65 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.57, λaway = 2.08
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 29.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 49.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 8.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Brann | – | 28.0% | 32.7% | 30.0% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 24.7% | 19.7% |
| 2 Molde | – | 56.0% | 42.6% | 50.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.093 → 9.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Brann | 30.0% | 3.34 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -16.1% | |
| X · Draw | 19.7% | 5.08 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -27.2% | |
| 2 · Molde | 50.4% | 1.99 | 2.15 | 46.5% | +8.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 49.6% | 2.01 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -17.1% | |
| X2 | 70.0% | 1.43 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -4.8% | |
| 12 | 80.3% | 1.24 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +0.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Brann | 37.3% | 2.68 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Molde | 62.7% | 1.60 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 87.9% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 12.1% | 8.27 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 29.4% | 3.40 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 49.5% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 71.1% | 1.41 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -5.4% | |
| BTTS no | 28.9% | 3.46 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -10.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.1% | 3.83 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.9% | 2.86 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 38.9% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.711 × 1.33 − 1 = -0.054 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Brann | Molde |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWLWL | WWWDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 3.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 50% against 30%. Standings: Brann 7th on 33, Molde 5th on 44.
Form
Brann, last six: W L W L W L – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Grorud. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Molde, last six: W W W D W L – four wins in total. Latest: 4–1 at home to Stromsgodset. Scoring rate: 3.5 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): Molde 1–2 Brann. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Brann 1.57 · Molde 2.08 · total 3.65. High total: over 2.5 71%, BTTS 71%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 71%, odds 1.33 v fair 1.41. Most probable score: Brann 1–2 Molde. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 18 Jul 2026Molde1–2Brann
Eliteserien table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 26 | +42 | 62 |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 26 | +40 | 62 |
| 3 |  Rosenborg | 26 | +21 | 46 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 26 | +4 | 45 |
| 5 |  Molde | 26 | +20 | 44 |
| 6 |  Tromso | 26 | +3 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 26 | +3 | 33 |
| 8 |  Valerenga | 26 | -4 | 32 |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 26 | -10 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 26 | -13 | 31 |
| 11 |  Ham-Kam | 26 | -15 | 30 |
| 12 |  Fredrikstad | 26 | -15 | 30 |
| 13 |  Sandefjord | 26 | -8 | 28 |
| 14 |  Kristiansund BK | 26 | -21 | 26 |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 26 | -15 | 24 |
| 16 |  Start | 26 | -32 | 19 |
More Eliteserien predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Brann vs Molde?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 71, priced around 1.33 by the bookmakers.
What are the Brann v Molde probabilities?
Brann win 30%, draw 20%, Molde win 50%.
What is the most probable score for Brann vs Molde?
Brann 1–2 Molde is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Brann vs Molde?
Brann 1.57, Molde 2.08 – over 2.5 at 71%, BTTS at 71%.
What time is Brann vs Molde?
Sunday 1 November 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Brann Stadion – Eliteserien.