- λ home
- 2.02
- λ away
- 1.17
- Σλ total
- 3.19
- P(over 2.5)
- 62%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.8%
KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam prediction & xG model: KFUM Oslo to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
KFUM Oslo v Ham-Kam: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipKFUM Oslo to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for KFUM Oslo v Ham-Kam are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.19 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 3.19 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.02, λaway = 1.17
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 21.5%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 KFUM Oslo | – | 69.0% | 46.2% | 59.4% |
| X Draw | – | 10.0% | 26.5% | 16.9% |
| 2 Ham-Kam | – | 21.0% | 27.3% | 23.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.110 → 11.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · KFUM Oslo pick | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +15.9% | |
| X · Draw | 16.9% | 5.91 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -42.4% | |
| 2 · Ham-Kam | 23.6% | 4.23 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -22.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 76.4% | 1.31 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -0.7% | |
| X2 | 40.6% | 2.46 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -29.0% | |
| 12 | 83.1% | 1.20 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +7.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB KFUM Oslo | 71.5% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ham-Kam | 28.5% | 3.51 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.7% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.3% | 5.80 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.2% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.5% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 61.1% | 1.64 | 1.65 | 60.6% | +0.8% | |
| BTTS no | 38.9% | 2.57 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -16.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.7% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.2% | 2.69 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.2% | 4.96 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.594 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.159 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.167 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | KFUM Oslo | Ham-Kam |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDWWWW | WLLWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: KFUM Oslo 59%, draw 17%, Ham-Kam 24%. Standings: KFUM Oslo 10th on 31, Ham-Kam 11th on 30.
Form
KFUM Oslo, last six: D D W W W W – four wins in total. Latest: 2–2 away at Kristiansund BK. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Ham-Kam, last six: W L L W L W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 away at Rosenborg. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Ham-Kam 4–0 KFUM Oslo. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG KFUM Oslo 2.02 · Ham-Kam 1.17 · total 3.19. High total: over 2.5 62%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: KFUM Oslo to win, probability 59%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: KFUM Oslo 2–1 Ham-Kam. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 19 Apr 2026Ham-Kam4–0KFUM Oslo
Eliteserien table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 26 | +42 | 62 |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 26 | +40 | 62 |
| 3 |  Rosenborg | 26 | +21 | 46 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 26 | +4 | 45 |
| 5 |  Molde | 26 | +20 | 44 |
| 6 |  Tromso | 26 | +3 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 26 | +3 | 33 |
| 8 |  Valerenga | 26 | -4 | 32 |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 26 | -10 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 26 | -13 | 31 |
| 11 |  Ham-Kam | 26 | -15 | 30 |
| 12 |  Fredrikstad | 26 | -15 | 30 |
| 13 |  Sandefjord | 26 | -8 | 28 |
| 14 |  Kristiansund BK | 26 | -21 | 26 |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 26 | -15 | 24 |
| 16 |  Start | 26 | -32 | 19 |
More Eliteserien predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
The Model pick is KFUM Oslo to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the KFUM Oslo v Ham-Kam probabilities?
KFUM Oslo win 59%, draw 17%, Ham-Kam win 24%.
What is the most probable score for KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
KFUM Oslo 2–1 Ham-Kam is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
KFUM Oslo 2.02, Ham-Kam 1.17 – over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
Sunday 1 November 2026, 17:00 WAT, at KFUM Arena – Eliteserien.