- λ home
- 1.29
- λ away
- 2.42
- Σλ total
- 3.71
- P(over 2.5)
- 63%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.3%
Smail vs Bahla prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Smail v Bahla: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Smail v Bahla are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (23 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smail (home) | 1.66 | 0.97 | 0.85 | 1.36 |
| Bahla (away) | 1.38 | 1.13 | 1.24 | 1.93 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.97 × 0.85 ≈ 1.36
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.29 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.75 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.84 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.71 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.29, λaway = 2.42
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 19.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 62.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Smail | 26.8% | 12.0% | 21.5% | 16.0% |
| X Draw | 23.1% | 24.0% | 25.4% | 24.6% |
| 2 Bahla | 50.2% | 64.0% | 53.1% | 59.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.120 → 12.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Smail | 16.0% | 6.25 | 4.15 | 24.1% | -33.6% | |
| X · Draw | 24.6% | 4.07 | 3.52 | 28.4% | -13.5% | |
| 2 · Bahla | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.68 | 59.5% | -0.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 40.6% | 2.47 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -22.5% | |
| X2 | 84.0% | 1.19 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -4.2% | |
| 12 | 75.4% | 1.33 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -9.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Smail | 21.2% | 4.72 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bahla | 78.8% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.3% | 1.21 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -2.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.7% | 5.66 | 3.82 | 26.2% | -32.6% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 62.7% | 1.59 | 1.70 | 58.8% | +6.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 37.3% | 2.68 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -25.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.69 | 37.2% | +13.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -21.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.65 | 60.6% | +2.3% | |
| BTTS no | 38.0% | 2.63 | 2.03 | 49.3% | -22.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 19.4% | 5.16 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.3% | 3.00 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 47.3% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.627 × 1.70 − 1 = +0.067 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.095 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Smail | Bahla |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDDDD | WWWDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-5-1 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 100% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 59% against 16%.
Form
Sequence for Smail: D L D D D D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Bidiyah Club. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Bahla, last six: W W W D W L – four wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Al Nasr. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Smail 0–1 Bahla. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Smail 1.29 · Bahla 2.42 · total 3.71. High total: over 2.5 63%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 63%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: Smail 1–2 Bahla. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 23 May 2026Smail0–1Bahla
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Dhofar1Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Smail vs Bahla?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Smail v Bahla probabilities?
Smail win 16%, draw 25%, Bahla win 59%.
What is the most probable score for Smail vs Bahla?
Smail 1–2 Bahla is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Smail vs Bahla?
Smail 1.29, Bahla 2.42 – over 2.5 at 63%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Smail vs Bahla?
Thursday 12 November 2026, 14:55 WAT – FA Cup.