- λ home
- 1.54
- λ away
- 1.65
- Σλ total
- 3.18
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.5%
Sur vs Dhofar prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Sur v Dhofar: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Sur v Dhofar are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (20 and 19 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sur (home) | 1.66 | 1.12 | 1.06 | 1.96 |
| Dhofar (away) | 1.38 | 0.89 | 1.14 | 1.39 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.12 × 1.06 ≈ 1.96
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.35 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.50 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.18 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.54, λaway = 1.65
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 36.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 40.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sur | 50.1% | 41.0% | 30.1% | 36.4% |
| X Draw | 22.8% | 18.0% | 28.8% | 22.5% |
| 2 Dhofar | 27.0% | 41.0% | 41.1% | 41.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sur | 36.4% | 2.74 | 2.96 | 33.8% | +7.8% | |
| X · Draw | 22.5% | 4.44 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -30.2% | |
| 2 · Dhofar | 41.0% | 2.44 | 2.17 | 46.1% | -10.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.0% | 1.70 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -10.4% | |
| X2 | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -18.6% | |
| 12 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -2.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sur | 47.0% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Dhofar | 53.0% | 1.89 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -2.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.5% | 4.26 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -28.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | 2.01 | 49.8% | +7.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.3% | 2.16 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -21.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.6% | 3.07 | 3.50 | 28.6% | +14.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -17.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.77 | 56.5% | +10.2% | |
| BTTS no | 37.8% | 2.65 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -29.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.4% | 3.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.3% | 2.61 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.3% | 3.10 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.622 × 1.77 − 1 = +0.102 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.132 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sur | Dhofar |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLLWW | DDWDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 1-4-1 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Sur 36%, draw 23%, Dhofar 41%.
Form
Sequence for Sur: W W L L W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–0 away at Al Nasr. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Dhofar, last six: D D W D L D – one win in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Saham. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sur 1.54 · Dhofar 1.65 · total 3.18. Goals expected – 54% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.77 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: Sur 1–2 Dhofar. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
More FA Cup predictions
League page →
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Bahla2Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sur vs Dhofar?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.77 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sur v Dhofar probabilities?
Sur win 36%, draw 23%, Dhofar win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Sur vs Dhofar?
Sur 1–2 Dhofar is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sur vs Dhofar?
Sur 1.54, Dhofar 1.65 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Sur vs Dhofar?
Thursday 12 November 2026, 14:50 WAT – FA Cup.