- λ home
- 1.51
- λ away
- 1.26
- Σλ total
- 2.77
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.9%
Oman Club vs Al Nasr prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Oman Club v Al Nasr: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Oman Club v Al Nasr are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (18 and 19 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oman Club (home) | 1.66 | 0.71 | 0.89 | 1.05 |
| Al Nasr (away) | 1.38 | 0.85 | 0.72 | 0.85 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.71 × 0.89 ≈ 1.05
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.90 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.25 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.37 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.77 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.51, λaway = 1.26
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oman Club | 38.6% | 48.0% | 37.0% | 43.4% |
| X Draw | 33.3% | 19.0% | 31.6% | 24.3% |
| 2 Al Nasr | 28.1% | 33.0% | 31.5% | 32.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Oman Club | 43.4% | 2.31 | 2.41 | 41.5% | +4.5% | |
| X · Draw | 24.3% | 4.12 | 2.82 | 35.5% | -31.5% | |
| 2 · Al Nasr | 32.4% | 3.09 | 2.83 | 35.3% | -8.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 67.6% | 1.48 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -11.4% | |
| X2 | 56.6% | 1.77 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -19.6% | |
| 12 | 75.7% | 1.32 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -0.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Oman Club | 57.3% | 1.75 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Al Nasr | 42.7% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.4% | 1.40 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -2.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.6% | 3.50 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -22.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.3% | 2.11 | 2.17 | 46.1% | +2.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -16.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.1% | 3.70 | 3.78 | 26.5% | +2.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -13.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 56.4% | 1.77 | 1.84 | 54.3% | +3.8% | |
| BTTS no | 43.6% | 2.30 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -21.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.6% | 3.07 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.5% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.9% | 3.86 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.564 × 1.84 − 1 = +0.038 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.046 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Oman Club | Al Nasr |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWLLW | LLWDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Oman Club 43%, draw 24%, Al Nasr 32%.
Form
Oman Club have two wins from their last six (L L W L L W). Latest: 1–2 away at Sur. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Al Nasr have one win from their last six (L L W D L D). Latest: 0–3 at home to Sur. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Oman Club 0–0 Al Nasr. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Oman Club 1.51 · Al Nasr 1.26 · total 2.77. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.84 v fair 1.77. Most probable score: Oman Club 2–1 Al Nasr. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 16 Apr 2026Oman Club0–0Al Nasr
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Bahla2Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Oman Club vs Al Nasr?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.84 by the bookmakers.
What are the Oman Club v Al Nasr probabilities?
Oman Club win 43%, draw 24%, Al Nasr win 32%.
What is the most probable score for Oman Club vs Al Nasr?
Oman Club 2–1 Al Nasr is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Oman Club vs Al Nasr?
Oman Club 1.51, Al Nasr 1.26 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Oman Club vs Al Nasr?
Thursday 12 November 2026, 14:50 WAT – FA Cup.