- λ home
- 1.61
- λ away
- 1.02
- Σλ total
- 2.63
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.8%
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Atletico Nacional 55% · draw 17% · Once Caldas 28%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Atletico Nacional v Once Caldas: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Atletico Nacional v Once Caldas are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.63 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.64 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.63 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.61, λaway = 1.02
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 51.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 23.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Atletico Nacional | – | 54.0% | 57.2% | 55.3% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 24.6% | 16.7% |
| 2 Once Caldas | – | 35.0% | 18.2% | 28.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.087 → 8.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Atletico Nacional | 55.3% | 1.81 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -10.9% | |
| X · Draw | 16.7% | 5.98 | 3.74 | 26.7% | -37.5% | |
| 2 · Once Caldas | 28.0% | 3.58 | 5.05 | 19.8% | +41.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 72.0% | 1.39 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -18.6% | |
| X2 | 44.7% | 2.24 | 2.16 | 46.3% | -3.5% | |
| 12 | 83.3% | 1.20 | 1.23 | 81.3% | +2.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Atletico Nacional | 66.4% | 1.51 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Once Caldas | 33.6% | 2.98 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 73.2% | 1.37 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -8.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.8% | 3.72 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -11.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.0% | 2.04 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -6.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -6.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.7% | 3.61 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -11.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -8.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.5% | 2.06 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -9.4% | |
| BTTS no | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -6.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 37.3% | 2.68 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.2% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.5% | 4.88 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.732 × 1.25 − 1 = -0.086 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Atletico Nacional | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWDWWW | DWWWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Atletico Nacional ahead at 55%, against 28% for Once Caldas and 17% for the draw.
Form
Sequence for Atletico Nacional: D W D W W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Once Caldas. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Once Caldas, last six: D W W W D D – three wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Atletico Nacional. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Atletico Nacional 0, Once Caldas 1, drawn 1, 1.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Nov 2026): Once Caldas 1–1 Atletico Nacional. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Atletico Nacional 1.61 · Once Caldas 1.02 · total 2.63. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 48%.
Model selection
Selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 73%, odds 1.25 v fair 1.37. Most probable score: Atletico Nacional 2–1 Once Caldas. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 11 Nov 2026Once Caldas1–1Atletico Nacional
- 2 May 2026Once Caldas1–0Atletico Nacional
More Copa Colombia predictions
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America de Cali
Internacional de BogotaFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 73, priced around 1.25 by the bookmakers.
What are the Atletico Nacional v Once Caldas probabilities?
Atletico Nacional win 55%, draw 17%, Once Caldas win 28%.
What is the most probable score for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
Atletico Nacional 2–1 Once Caldas is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
Atletico Nacional 1.61, Once Caldas 1.02 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
Wednesday 18 November 2026, 00:30 WAT, at Estadio Atanasio Girardot – Copa Colombia.