- λ home
- 1.87
- λ away
- 1.13
- Σλ total
- 3.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.5%
America de Cali vs Internacional de Bogota prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: America de Cali 59% · draw 23% · Internacional de Bogota 18%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
America de Cali v Internacional de Bogota: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for America de Cali v Internacional de Bogota are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| America de Cali (home) | 1.51 | 1.42 | 0.87 | 1.88 |
| Internacional de Bogota (away) | 1.40 | 1.24 | 0.76 | 1.32 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.51 × 1.42 × 0.87 ≈ 1.88
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.19 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.22 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.53 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.87, λaway = 1.13
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 54.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 22.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 America de Cali | 49.9% | 61.0% | 64.8% | 58.8% |
| X Draw | 23.5% | 23.0% | 22.7% | 23.1% |
| 2 Internacional de Bogota | 26.6% | 16.0% | 12.4% | 18.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.086 → 8.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · America de Cali | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -16.6% | |
| X · Draw | 23.1% | 4.34 | 4.05 | 24.7% | -6.6% | |
| 2 · Internacional de Bogota | 18.2% | 5.50 | 7.40 | 13.5% | +34.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.8% | 1.22 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -14.1% | |
| X2 | 41.2% | 2.42 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +8.1% | |
| 12 | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -8.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB America de Cali | 76.4% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Internacional de Bogota | 23.6% | 4.23 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -2.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.2% | 3.97 | 2.97 | 33.7% | -25.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | 2.01 | 49.8% | +4.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.0% | 2.09 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -16.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.2% | 3.21 | 3.34 | 29.9% | +4.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.8% | 1.45 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -14.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.6% | 1.80 | 2.22 | 45.0% | +23.3% | |
| BTTS no | 44.4% | 2.25 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -30.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 40.5% | 2.47 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.8% | 2.58 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.6% | 4.84 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.556 × 2.22 − 1 = +0.233 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.191 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | America de Cali | Internacional de Bogota |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDDWW | LLLWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
America de Cali ahead at 59%, against 18% for Internacional de Bogota and 23% for the draw.
Form
America de Cali have four wins from their last six (W W D D W W). Latest: 2–0 away at Deportivo Pereira. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Internacional de Bogota have two wins from their last six (L L L W L W). Latest: 0–2 at home to Santa Fe. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: America de Cali 2, Internacional de Bogota 0, drawn 0, 2.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Nov 2026): Internacional de Bogota 1–2 America de Cali. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG America de Cali 1.87 · Internacional de Bogota 1.13 · total 3.00. Goals expected – 52% for over 2.5 and 56% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 2.22 v fair 1.80. Most probable score: America de Cali 2–1 Internacional de Bogota. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 11 Nov 2026Internacional de Bogota1–2America de Cali
- 26 Jul 2026Internacional de Bogota0–2America de Cali
More Copa Colombia predictions
League page →
Atletico Nacional
Once CaldasFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for America de Cali vs Internacional de Bogota?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 2.22 by the bookmakers.
What are the America de Cali v Internacional de Bogota probabilities?
America de Cali win 59%, draw 23%, Internacional de Bogota win 18%.
What is the most probable score for America de Cali vs Internacional de Bogota?
America de Cali 2–1 Internacional de Bogota is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for America de Cali vs Internacional de Bogota?
America de Cali 1.87, Internacional de Bogota 1.13 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is America de Cali vs Internacional de Bogota?
Wednesday 18 November 2026, 02:30 WAT – Copa Colombia.