- λ home
- 1.08
- λ away
- 0.98
- Σλ total
- 2.07
- P(over 2.5)
- 36%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.7%
Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Naft Masjed Soleyman 37% · draw 27% · Shenavarsazi Qeshm 36%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Naft Masjed Soleyman v Shenavarsazi Qeshm: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Naft Masjed Soleyman v Shenavarsazi Qeshm are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (9 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naft Masjed Soleyman (home) | 0.96 | 1.37 | 0.87 | 1.14 |
| Shenavarsazi Qeshm (away) | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.18 | 0.95 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 0.96 × 1.37 × 0.87 ≈ 1.14
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.09 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.89 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.18 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.07 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.08, λaway = 0.98
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 30.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 32.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Naft Masjed Soleyman | 39.1% | 35.0% | 35.3% | 36.6% |
| X Draw | 31.4% | 18.0% | 29.4% | 27.4% |
| 2 Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 29.5% | 47.0% | 35.3% | 36.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.124 → 12.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Naft Masjed Soleyman | 36.6% | 2.74 | 2.52 | 39.7% | -7.9% | |
| X · Draw | 27.4% | 3.64 | 3.03 | 33.0% | -16.8% | |
| 2 · Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 36.0% | 2.78 | 2.52 | 39.7% | -9.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -11.7% | |
| X2 | 63.4% | 1.58 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -12.4% | |
| 12 | 72.6% | 1.38 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -8.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Naft Masjed Soleyman | 50.4% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 49.6% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -10.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 37.4% | 2.68 | 2.55 | 39.2% | -4.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35.7% | 2.80 | 2.47 | 40.5% | -11.9% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 64.3% | 1.55 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -6.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 15.5% | 6.44 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 84.5% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.9% | 2.05 | 2.07 | 48.3% | +1.2% | |
| BTTS no | 51.1% | 1.96 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -16.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.0% | 3.70 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 49.0% | 2.04 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.0% | 4.17 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.643 × 1.46 − 1 = -0.061 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Naft Masjed Soleyman | Shenavarsazi Qeshm |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLDDW | WLWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 5-0-1 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 17% |
| BTTS | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Naft Masjed Soleyman 37%, draw 27%, Shenavarsazi Qeshm 36%. Standings: Naft Masjed Soleyman 11th on 11, Shenavarsazi Qeshm 2nd on 18.
Form
Sequence for Naft Masjed Soleyman: L W L D D W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Mes Kerman. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Sequence for Shenavarsazi Qeshm: W L W W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Mes Rafsanjan. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Naft Masjed Soleyman 1.08 · Shenavarsazi Qeshm 0.98 · total 2.07. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 2.5 goals, probability 64%, odds 1.46 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Naft Masjed Soleyman 1–0 Shenavarsazi Qeshm. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Azadegan League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pars Jonoubi JAM | 9 | +8 | 21 |
| 2 |  Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 9 | +4 | 18 |
| 3 |  Fard Alborz | 9 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 |  Mes Rafsanjan | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  Mes Soongoun | 9 | +1 | 15 |
| 6 |  Shahin Bandar Ameri | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 |  Ario Eslamshahr | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 |  Naft Gachsaran | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Novin Ahvaz | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Saipa | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 |  Naft Masjed Soleyman | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 |  Be'sat Kermanshah | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Mes Kerman | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 |  Naft Bandar Abbas | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 |  Niroye Zamini | 9 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 |  Havadar | 9 | -9 | 4 |
More Azadegan League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.46 by the bookmakers.
What are the Naft Masjed Soleyman v Shenavarsazi Qeshm probabilities?
Naft Masjed Soleyman win 37%, draw 27%, Shenavarsazi Qeshm win 36%.
What is the most probable score for Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm?
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1–0 Shenavarsazi Qeshm is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm?
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1.08, Shenavarsazi Qeshm 0.98 – over 2.5 at 36%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm?
Monday 16 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Azadegan League.