- λ home
- 1.35
- λ away
- 0.49
- Σλ total
- 1.84
- P(over 2.5)
- 34%
- P(BTTS)
- 44%
- Modal score
- 1–0 21.4%
Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Novin Ahvaz prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Pars Jonoubi JAM 60% · draw 26% · Novin Ahvaz 14%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Pars Jonoubi JAM v Novin Ahvaz: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Pars Jonoubi JAM v Novin Ahvaz are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (22 and 9 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pars Jonoubi JAM (home) | 0.96 | 1.39 | 0.88 | 1.17 |
| Novin Ahvaz (away) | 0.80 | 0.91 | 0.61 | 0.45 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 0.96 × 1.39 × 0.88 ≈ 1.17
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.62 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.72 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.28 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.84 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.35, λaway = 0.49
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 21.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Pars Jonoubi JAM | 52.8% | 63.0% | 64.8% | 60.2% |
| X Draw | 33.5% | 17.0% | 23.6% | 25.5% |
| 2 Novin Ahvaz | 13.7% | 20.0% | 11.6% | 14.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Pars Jonoubi JAM | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -16.3% | |
| X · Draw | 25.5% | 3.92 | 3.81 | 26.2% | -2.8% | |
| 2 · Novin Ahvaz | 14.3% | 7.00 | 7.75 | 12.9% | +10.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.7% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -0.5% | |
| 12 | 74.5% | 1.34 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -13.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Pars Jonoubi JAM | 80.8% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Novin Ahvaz | 19.2% | 5.21 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -16.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 39.3% | 2.54 | 2.73 | 36.6% | +7.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33.9% | 2.95 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -22.0% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 66.1% | 1.51 | 1.52 | 65.8% | +0.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 11.5% | 8.68 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 88.5% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.51 | 39.8% | +10.7% | |
| BTTS no | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -19.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 38.1% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 50.4% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.5% | 8.72 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.661 × 1.52 − 1 = +0.005 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.009 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Pars Jonoubi JAM | Novin Ahvaz |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWWWW | DWDWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 2-4-0 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 0% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Pars Jonoubi JAM at 60%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Pars Jonoubi JAM 1st on 21, Novin Ahvaz 9th on 12.
Form
Pars Jonoubi JAM have five wins from their last six (W D W W W W). Latest: 4–1 at home to Naft Bandar Abbas. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.3 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Novin Ahvaz have two wins from their last six (D W D W D D). Latest: 0–0 at home to Ario Eslamshahr. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Pars Jonoubi JAM 1.35 · Novin Ahvaz 0.49 · total 1.84. Low total: under 2.5 66%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 2.5 goals, probability 66%, odds 1.52 v fair 1.51. Most probable score: Pars Jonoubi JAM 1–0 Novin Ahvaz. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Azadegan League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pars Jonoubi JAM | 9 | +8 | 21 |
| 2 |  Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 9 | +4 | 18 |
| 3 |  Fard Alborz | 9 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 |  Mes Rafsanjan | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  Mes Soongoun | 9 | +1 | 15 |
| 6 |  Shahin Bandar Ameri | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 |  Ario Eslamshahr | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 |  Naft Gachsaran | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Novin Ahvaz | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Saipa | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 |  Naft Masjed Soleyman | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 |  Be'sat Kermanshah | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Mes Kerman | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 |  Naft Bandar Abbas | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 |  Niroye Zamini | 9 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 |  Havadar | 9 | -9 | 4 |
More Azadegan League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Novin Ahvaz?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.52 by the bookmakers.
What are the Pars Jonoubi JAM v Novin Ahvaz probabilities?
Pars Jonoubi JAM win 60%, draw 26%, Novin Ahvaz win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Novin Ahvaz?
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1–0 Novin Ahvaz is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Novin Ahvaz?
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1.35, Novin Ahvaz 0.49 – over 2.5 at 34%, BTTS at 44%.
What time is Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Novin Ahvaz?
Monday 16 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – Azadegan League.