- λ home
- 0.82
- λ away
- 0.92
- Σλ total
- 1.74
- P(over 2.5)
- 25%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 0–0 17.5%
Be'sat Kermanshah vs Mes Soongoun prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Be'sat Kermanshah 33% · draw 32% · Mes Soongoun 35%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Be'sat Kermanshah v Mes Soongoun: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Be'sat Kermanshah v Mes Soongoun are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (20 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Be'sat Kermanshah (home) | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.75 |
| Mes Soongoun (away) | 0.80 | 0.99 | 1.14 | 0.91 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 0.96 × 0.91 × 0.86 ≈ 0.75
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.66 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.94 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 1.70 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.74 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.82, λaway = 0.92
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 33.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.9%
- Most probable score
- 0–0 · 17.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Be'sat Kermanshah | 27.6% | 37.0% | 35.9% | 33.3% |
| X Draw | 36.2% | 20.0% | 34.5% | 31.7% |
| 2 Mes Soongoun | 36.1% | 43.0% | 29.6% | 35.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.110 → 11.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Be'sat Kermanshah | 33.3% | 3.01 | 2.51 | 39.8% | -16.5% | |
| X · Draw | 31.7% | 3.15 | 2.61 | 38.3% | -17.2% | |
| 2 · Mes Soongoun | 35.0% | 2.86 | 3.04 | 32.9% | +6.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -17.4% | |
| X2 | 66.7% | 1.50 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -7.9% | |
| 12 | 68.3% | 1.47 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -7.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Be'sat Kermanshah | 48.7% | 2.05 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Mes Soongoun | 51.3% | 1.95 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -7.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 48.8% | 2.05 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -9.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 24.8% | 4.04 | 3.79 | 26.4% | -6.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 75.2% | 1.33 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -9.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 9.9% | 10.06 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 90.1% | 1.11 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 46.1% | 2.17 | 2.81 | 35.6% | +29.5% | |
| BTTS no | 53.9% | 1.86 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -26.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 21.7% | 4.61 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 53.5% | 1.87 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.8% | 4.04 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.512 × 1.81 − 1 = -0.073 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Be'sat Kermanshah | Mes Soongoun |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDDLLW | WDWWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Be'sat Kermanshah 33%, draw 32%, Mes Soongoun 35%. Standings: Be'sat Kermanshah 12th on 9, Mes Soongoun 5th on 15.
Form
Sequence for Be'sat Kermanshah: L D D L L W, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–4 away at Fard Alborz. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Mes Soongoun, last six: W D W W W L – four wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Naft Gachsaran. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jun 2026): Be'sat Kermanshah 1–0 Mes Soongoun. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Be'sat Kermanshah 0.82 · Mes Soongoun 0.92 · total 1.74. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 75%.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 51%, odds 1.81 v fair 1.95. Most probable score: Be'sat Kermanshah 0–2 Mes Soongoun. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 9 Jun 2026Be'sat Kermanshah1–0Mes Soongoun
Azadegan League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pars Jonoubi JAM | 9 | +8 | 21 |
| 2 |  Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 9 | +4 | 18 |
| 3 |  Fard Alborz | 9 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 |  Mes Rafsanjan | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  Mes Soongoun | 9 | +1 | 15 |
| 6 |  Shahin Bandar Ameri | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 |  Ario Eslamshahr | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 |  Naft Gachsaran | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Novin Ahvaz | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Saipa | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 |  Naft Masjed Soleyman | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 |  Be'sat Kermanshah | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Mes Kerman | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 |  Naft Bandar Abbas | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 |  Niroye Zamini | 9 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 |  Havadar | 9 | -9 | 4 |
More Azadegan League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Be'sat Kermanshah vs Mes Soongoun?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 51, priced around 1.81 by the bookmakers.
What are the Be'sat Kermanshah v Mes Soongoun probabilities?
Be'sat Kermanshah win 33%, draw 32%, Mes Soongoun win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Be'sat Kermanshah vs Mes Soongoun?
Be'sat Kermanshah 0–2 Mes Soongoun is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Be'sat Kermanshah vs Mes Soongoun?
Be'sat Kermanshah 0.82, Mes Soongoun 0.92 – over 2.5 at 25%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is Be'sat Kermanshah vs Mes Soongoun?
Monday 16 November 2026, 12:30 WAT – Azadegan League.