England FA Trophy Sat 14 Nov 2026 Full time

Hashtag United

WDWDW

59%P(1)14%P(X)27%P(2)

λ home: 2.24
λ away: 1.41
Σλ total: 3.65
P(over 2.5): 68%
P(BTTS): 69%
Modal score: 2–1 9.2%

Wingate & Finchley vs Hashtag United prediction & xG model: Wingate & Finchley to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Wingate & Finchley v Hashtag United: how the Arena called it

Full time: 2–2
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipWingate & Finchley to win✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Wingate & Finchley v Hashtag United are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (28 and 9 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Wingate & Finchley (home)	1.66	1.18	0.85	1.67
Hashtag United (away)	1.38	1.13	1.01	1.57

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.18 × 0.85 ≈ 1.67

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.24	45%
Statistical xG feed	4.00	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.35	30%
Blended total λ	3.65	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.24, λ_away = 1.41

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Wingate & Finchley λ = 2.24

010.7%

123.9%

226.7%

319.9%

411.1%

5+7.6%

Hashtag United λ = 1.41

024.4%

134.4%

224.3%

311.4%

44.0%

5+1.5%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Win \ Has012345+

02.63.72.61.2··

15.88.25.82.71.0·

26.59.26.53.01.1·

34.96.94.82.30.8·

42.73.82.71.3··

5+1.92.61.90.9··

Σ home-win cells: 56.2%
Σ draw cells: 20.1%
Σ away-win cells: 23.7%
Most probable score: 2–1 · 9.2%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Wingate & Finchley	39.8%	69.0%	46.1%	59.4%
X Draw	24.2%	6.0%	24.5%	13.8%
2 Hashtag United	35.9%	25.0%	29.4%	26.8%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Wingate & Finchley pick	59.4%	1.68	1.94	51.5%	+15.2%
X · Draw	13.8%	7.25	3.64	27.5%	-49.8%
2 · Hashtag United	26.8%	3.73	3.04	32.9%	-18.4%
Double chance
1X	73.2%	1.37	1.27	78.7%	-7.1%
X2	40.6%	2.46	1.67	59.9%	-32.1%
12	86.2%	1.16	1.19	84.0%	+2.6%
Draw no bet
DNB Wingate & Finchley	68.9%	1.45	–	–	–
DNB Hashtag United	31.1%	3.21	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	85.5%	1.17	1.09	91.7%	-6.8%
Under 1.5	14.5%	6.92	5.40	18.5%	-21.9%
Over 2.5	67.8%	1.47	1.39	71.9%	-5.8%
Under 2.5	32.2%	3.11	2.59	38.6%	-16.6%
Over 3.5	47.2%	2.12	2.04	49.0%	-3.6%
Under 3.5	52.8%	1.90	1.67	59.9%	-11.9%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	68.8%	1.45	1.39	71.9%	-4.4%
BTTS no	31.2%	3.20	2.67	37.5%	-16.6%
Half-time
HT 1	43.1%	2.32	–	–	–
HT X	34.4%	2.91	–	–	–
HT 2	22.5%	4.45	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickWingate & Finchley to win

Probability59.4%

Fair odds1.68

Best odds1.94

EV per unit+15.2%

EV = 0.594 × 1.94 − 1 = +0.152 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.161 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Wingate & Finchley	Hashtag United
Sequence	LDDWWW	WDWDWD
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	3-2-1	3-3-0
Points per match	1.83	2.00
Goals for / match	2.33	2.00
Goals against / match	1.50	1.00
Over 2.5	67%	67%
BTTS	83%	67%
Clean sheets	17%	33%
Failed to score	0%	33%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Wingate & Finchley ahead at 59%, against 27% for Hashtag United and 14% for the draw.

Form

Sequence for Wingate & Finchley: L D D W W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–3 at home to Maldon & Tiptree. 2.3 goals a match in that spell.

Hashtag United, last six: W D W D W D – three wins in total. Latest: 3–1 away at Deal Town. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Wingate & Finchley 2.24 · Hashtag United 1.41 · total 3.65. Goals expected – 68% for over 2.5 and 69% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Wingate & Finchley to win, probability 59%, odds 1.94 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: Wingate & Finchley 2–1 Hashtag United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.