England FA Trophy Sat 14 Nov 2026 Full time

Ebbsfleet United

WLWWD

26%P(1)19%P(X)56%P(2)

λ home: 1.19
λ away: 1.90
Σλ total: 3.09
P(over 2.5): 60%
P(BTTS): 64%
Modal score: 1–1 10.3%

Farnham Town vs Ebbsfleet United prediction & xG model: Ebbsfleet United to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Farnham Town v Ebbsfleet United: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–2
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipEbbsfleet United to win✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Farnham Town v Ebbsfleet United are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (33 and 30 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Farnham Town (home)	1.66	1.27	0.69	1.44
Ebbsfleet United (away)	1.38	1.55	0.79	1.69

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.27 × 0.69 ≈ 1.44

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.14	60%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.09	40%
Blended total λ	3.09	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.19, λ_away = 1.90

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Farnham Town λ = 1.19

030.4%

136.2%

221.5%

38.5%

42.5%

5+0.7%

Ebbsfleet United λ = 1.90

015.0%

128.5%

227.0%

317.1%

48.1%

5+4.4%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Far \ Ebb012345+

04.68.78.25.22.51.3

15.4109.86.22.91.6

23.26.15.83.71.70.9

31.32.42.31.50.7·

4·0.70.7···

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 23.8%
Σ draw cells: 22.4%
Σ away-win cells: 53.8%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 10.3%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Farnham Town	32.5%	25.0%	26.4%	25.6%
X Draw	24.5%	14.0%	25.2%	18.7%
2 Ebbsfleet United	43.0%	61.0%	48.3%	55.7%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Farnham Town	25.6%	3.91	3.38	29.6%	-13.5%
X · Draw	18.7%	5.34	3.54	28.2%	-33.7%
2 · Ebbsfleet United pick	55.7%	1.80	1.85	54.1%	+3.0%
Double chance
1X	44.3%	2.26	1.74	57.5%	-22.9%
X2	74.4%	1.34	1.22	82.0%	-9.2%
12	81.3%	1.23	1.20	83.3%	-2.5%
Draw no bet
DNB Farnham Town	31.5%	3.17	–	–	–
DNB Ebbsfleet United	68.5%	1.46	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	80.7%	1.24	1.13	88.5%	-8.8%
Under 1.5	19.3%	5.19	4.55	22.0%	-12.3%
Over 2.5	59.6%	1.68	1.54	64.9%	-8.2%
Under 2.5	40.4%	2.47	2.27	44.1%	-8.2%
Over 3.5	38.3%	2.61	2.30	43.5%	-12.0%
Under 3.5	61.7%	1.62	1.49	67.1%	-8.0%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	64.2%	1.56	1.49	67.1%	-4.3%
BTTS no	35.8%	2.79	2.38	42.0%	-14.8%
Half-time
HT 1	21.5%	4.65	–	–	–
HT X	38.3%	2.61	–	–	–
HT 2	40.3%	2.48	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickEbbsfleet United to win

Probability55.7%

Fair odds1.80

Best odds1.85

EV per unit+3.0%

EV = 0.557 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.030 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.035 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.9% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Farnham Town	Ebbsfleet United
Sequence	WWLWWL	DWWLWW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	4-0-2	4-1-1
Points per match	2.00	2.17
Goals for / match	2.67	2.67
Goals against / match	1.00	1.00
Over 2.5	67%	83%
BTTS	50%	33%
Clean sheets	33%	50%
Failed to score	17%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Marginal away preference, 56% against 26%.

Form

Sequence for Farnham Town: W W L W W L, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–1 at home to Tonbridge Angels. Scoring rate: 2.7 per match – well above average.

Ebbsfleet United have four wins from their last six (D W W L W W). Latest: 2–2 away at Chelmsford City. Scoring rate: 2.7 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Farnham Town 1.19 · Ebbsfleet United 1.90 · total 3.09. High total: over 2.5 60%, BTTS 64%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Ebbsfleet United to win, probability 56%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.80. Most probable score: Farnham Town 1–2 Ebbsfleet United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.