- λ home
- 1.51
- λ away
- 1.58
- Σλ total
- 3.09
- P(over 2.5)
- 63%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.9%
Didcot Town vs Slough Town prediction & xG model: Slough Town or draw
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Didcot Town 23% · draw 51% · Slough Town 26%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Didcot Town v Slough Town: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Didcot Town v Slough Town are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.75 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.37 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.09 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.51, λaway = 1.58
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 36.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Didcot Town | – | 14.0% | 36.2% | 23.3% |
| X Draw | – | 70.0% | 23.9% | 50.6% |
| 2 Slough Town | – | 16.0% | 39.9% | 26.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Didcot Town | 23.3% | 4.29 | 2.47 | 40.5% | -42.4% | |
| X · Draw | 50.6% | 1.97 | 3.74 | 26.7% | +89.4% | |
| 2 · Slough Town | 26.0% | 3.84 | 2.24 | 44.6% | -41.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 74.0% | 1.35 | 1.49 | 67.1% | +10.2% | |
| X2 pick | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.41 | 70.9% | +8.1% | |
| 12 | 49.4% | 2.03 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -41.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Didcot Town | 47.2% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Slough Town | 52.8% | 1.90 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -10.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.5% | 5.73 | 5.55 | 18.0% | -3.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -13.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 37.4% | 2.67 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -2.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.03 | 49.3% | -16.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -1.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 64.7% | 1.55 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -12.0% | |
| BTTS no | 35.3% | 2.83 | 2.78 | 36.0% | -1.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.7% | 3.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.0% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.3% | 3.19 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.767 × 1.41 − 1 = +0.081 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.198 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Didcot Town | Slough Town |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWDW | WLLLLL |
| Matches | 5 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-0 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.60 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.40 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 100% |
| BTTS | 40% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 23 / 51 / 26% for home, draw, away.
Form
Didcot Town, last five: W D W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Poole Town. Per match: 1.6 scored, 0.4 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Slough Town, last six: W L L L L L – one win in total. Latest: 3–1 at home to Walton & Hersham. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Didcot Town 1.51 · Slough Town 1.58 · total 3.09. High total: over 2.5 63%, BTTS 65%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Slough Town or draw, probability 77%, odds 1.41 v fair 1.30. Most probable score: Didcot Town 1–1 Slough Town. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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Kettering TownFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Didcot Town vs Slough Town?
The Model pick is Slough Town or draw with a model probability of 77, priced around 1.41 by the bookmakers.
What are the Didcot Town v Slough Town probabilities?
Didcot Town win 23%, draw 51%, Slough Town win 26%.
What is the most probable score for Didcot Town vs Slough Town?
Didcot Town 1–1 Slough Town is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Didcot Town vs Slough Town?
Didcot Town 1.51, Slough Town 1.58 – over 2.5 at 63%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Didcot Town vs Slough Town?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – FA Trophy.