- λ home
- 1.12
- λ away
- 1.03
- Σλ total
- 2.15
- P(over 2.5)
- 40%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.4%
Reddis vs Barakaldo prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Reddis 31% · draw 34% · Barakaldo 35%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Reddis v Barakaldo: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Reddis v Barakaldo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (25 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reddis (home) | 1.66 | 0.90 | 0.74 | 1.11 |
| Barakaldo (away) | 1.38 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.87 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.90 × 0.74 ≈ 1.11
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.98 | 60% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.42 | 40% |
| Blended total λ | 2.15 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.12, λaway = 1.03
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 29.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 33.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Reddis | 39.8% | 22.0% | 28.4% | 30.9% |
| X Draw | 32.4% | 45.0% | 29.3% | 34.0% |
| 2 Barakaldo | 27.8% | 33.0% | 42.3% | 35.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.100 → 10.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Reddis | 30.9% | 3.24 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -1.2% | |
| X · Draw | 34.0% | 2.94 | 3.10 | 32.3% | +5.5% | |
| 2 · Barakaldo | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -24.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.65 | 60.6% | +7.1% | |
| X2 | 69.1% | 1.45 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -10.1% | |
| 12 | 66.0% | 1.52 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -12.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Reddis | 46.8% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Barakaldo | 53.2% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 65.7% | 1.52 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -10.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 34.3% | 2.92 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -0.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -14.1% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -0.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.3% | 4.93 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -18.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 79.7% | 1.25 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -2.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.8% | 2.05 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -9.7% | |
| BTTS no | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -5.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.3% | 3.66 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 48.0% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.7% | 4.04 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.600 × 1.65 − 1 = -0.009 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Reddis | Barakaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLDDWL | DWDDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 83% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Reddis 31%, draw 34%, Barakaldo 35%.
Form
Reddis have two wins from their last six (W L D D W L). Latest: 1–0 at home to UD Logroñés II. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Barakaldo have two wins from their last six (D W D D W L). Latest: 2–2 away at Deportivo La Coruña II. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Reddis 1.12 · Barakaldo 1.03 · total 2.15. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 60%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 60%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.67. Most probable score: Reddis 0–1 Barakaldo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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FC CartagenaFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Reddis vs Barakaldo?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the Reddis v Barakaldo probabilities?
Reddis win 31%, draw 34%, Barakaldo win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Reddis vs Barakaldo?
Reddis 0–1 Barakaldo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Reddis vs Barakaldo?
Reddis 1.12, Barakaldo 1.03 – over 2.5 at 40%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Reddis vs Barakaldo?
Wednesday 18 November 2026, 20:30 WAT, at Estadi Municipal de Reus – Copa Del Rey.