- λ home
- 1.70
- λ away
- 1.30
- Σλ total
- 3.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.0%
Portugalete vs Real Unión prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Portugalete 41% · draw 25% · Real Unión 34%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Portugalete v Real Unión: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Portugalete v Real Unión are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (18 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugalete (home) | 1.66 | 1.28 | 0.95 | 2.02 |
| Real Unión (away) | 1.38 | 1.22 | 0.78 | 1.31 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.28 × 0.95 ≈ 2.02
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.33 | 60% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.51 | 40% |
| Blended total λ | 3.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.70, λaway = 1.30
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 46.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 29.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Portugalete | 53.4% | 41.0% | 30.3% | 40.8% |
| X Draw | 22.4% | 19.0% | 30.3% | 24.9% |
| 2 Real Unión | 24.2% | 40.0% | 39.5% | 34.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.101 → 10.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Portugalete | 40.8% | 2.45 | 3.00 | 33.3% | +22.4% | |
| X · Draw | 24.9% | 4.02 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -25.3% | |
| 2 · Real Unión | 34.3% | 2.92 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -21.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.7% | 1.52 | 1.57 | 63.7% | +3.2% | |
| X2 | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -19.5% | |
| 12 | 75.1% | 1.33 | 1.35 | 74.1% | +1.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Portugalete | 54.3% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Real Unión | 45.7% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -0.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.0% | 4.01 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -22.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | 2.05 | 48.8% | +6.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.3% | 2.07 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -16.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.5% | 3.27 | 3.60 | 27.8% | +9.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.5% | 1.44 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -13.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.1% | 1.64 | 1.75 | 57.1% | +6.9% | |
| BTTS no | 38.9% | 2.57 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -24.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 35.6% | 2.81 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.9% | 4.01 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.611 × 1.75 − 1 = +0.069 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.091 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Portugalete | Real Unión |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDDWL | LLWDDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 41 / 25 / 34% for home, draw, away.
Form
Sequence for Portugalete: W D D D W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 3–0 away at Ourense CF. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Sequence for Real Unión: L L W D D D, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–2 away at Barakaldo. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Portugalete 1.70 · Real Unión 1.30 · total 3.00. High total: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 61%, odds 1.75 v fair 1.64. Most probable score: Portugalete 2–1 Real Unión. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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What is the Winning Arena prediction for Portugalete vs Real Unión?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.75 by the bookmakers.
What are the Portugalete v Real Unión probabilities?
Portugalete win 41%, draw 25%, Real Unión win 34%.
What is the most probable score for Portugalete vs Real Unión?
Portugalete 2–1 Real Unión is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Portugalete vs Real Unión?
Portugalete 1.70, Real Unión 1.30 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Portugalete vs Real Unión?
Wednesday 18 November 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Estadio La Florida – Copa Del Rey.