- λ home
- 0.64
- λ away
- 1.95
- Σλ total
- 2.59
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 0–1 14.7%
Alcoyano vs Mallorca prediction & xG model: Mallorca to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Alcoyano 11% · draw 20% · Mallorca 69%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Alcoyano v Mallorca: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Alcoyano v Mallorca are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.59 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 2.59 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.64, λaway = 1.95
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 11.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 68.6%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 14.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Alcoyano | – | 8.0% | 15.4% | 11.1% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 25.0% | 20.4% |
| 2 Mallorca | – | 75.0% | 59.6% | 68.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.082 → 8.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Alcoyano | 11.1% | 9.00 | 6.00 | 16.7% | -33.3% | |
| X · Draw | 20.4% | 4.91 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -24.7% | |
| 2 · Mallorca pick | 68.5% | 1.46 | 1.55 | 64.5% | +6.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 31.5% | 3.18 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -24.5% | |
| X2 | 88.9% | 1.12 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -0.4% | |
| 12 | 79.6% | 1.26 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -0.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Alcoyano | 13.9% | 7.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Mallorca | 86.1% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -8.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.2% | 3.55 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -13.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.9% | 2.09 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -6.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -6.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.9% | 3.72 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -11.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -8.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +1.4% | |
| BTTS no | 49.3% | 2.03 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -13.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 11.6% | 8.64 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.2% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 48.2% | 2.07 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.685 × 1.55 − 1 = +0.062 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.113 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Alcoyano | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDLLW | WDDWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Mallorca 69%, Alcoyano 11%.
Form
Sequence for Alcoyano: L W D L L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–2 at home to Elche II. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Mallorca have two wins from their last six (W D D W D L). Latest: 2–1 at home to Cadiz. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Alcoyano 0.64 · Mallorca 1.95 · total 2.59. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Selection: Mallorca to win, probability 69%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.46. Most probable score: Alcoyano 0–1 Mallorca. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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BarakaldoFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Alcoyano vs Mallorca?
The Model pick is Mallorca to win with a model probability of 69, priced around 1.55 by the bookmakers.
What are the Alcoyano v Mallorca probabilities?
Alcoyano win 11%, draw 20%, Mallorca win 69%.
What is the most probable score for Alcoyano vs Mallorca?
Alcoyano 0–1 Mallorca is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Alcoyano vs Mallorca?
Alcoyano 0.64, Mallorca 1.95 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Alcoyano vs Mallorca?
Wednesday 18 November 2026, 20:00 WAT, at Estadio El Collao – Copa Del Rey.