- λ home
- 1.49
- λ away
- 1.48
- Σλ total
- 2.96
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.3%
AC Horsens vs Vejle prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
AC Horsens v Vejle: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for AC Horsens v Vejle are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.05 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.89 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.96 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.49, λaway = 1.48
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 38.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 37.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 AC Horsens | – | 38.0% | 42.6% | 39.9% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 25.5% | 20.6% |
| 2 Vejle | – | 45.0% | 31.9% | 39.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · AC Horsens | 39.9% | 2.51 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -16.2% | |
| X · Draw | 20.6% | 4.86 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -28.0% | |
| 2 · Vejle | 39.5% | 2.53 | 2.80 | 35.7% | +10.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 60.5% | 1.65 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -19.5% | |
| X2 | 60.1% | 1.66 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -3.9% | |
| 12 | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB AC Horsens | 50.3% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Vejle | 49.7% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.6% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.4% | 4.89 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 56.1% | 1.78 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -4.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 43.9% | 2.28 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -7.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.5% | 2.90 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 48.1% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.1% | 3.32 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.0% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.9% | 3.35 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.561 × 1.70 − 1 = -0.047 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | AC Horsens | Vejle |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLWWL | DLDWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 40 / 21 / 40% for home, draw, away.
Form
AC Horsens have three wins from their last six (D W L W W L). Latest: 2–2 at home to Aarhus. 2.7 goals a match in that spell.
Vejle, last six: D L D W D W – two wins in total. Latest: 2–2 away at FC Fredericia. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG AC Horsens 1.49 · Vejle 1.48 · total 2.96. High total: over 2.5 56%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 56%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.78. Most probable score: AC Horsens 2–1 Vejle. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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FC Ingolstadt 041Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for AC Horsens vs Vejle?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the AC Horsens v Vejle probabilities?
AC Horsens win 40%, draw 21%, Vejle win 40%.
What is the most probable score for AC Horsens vs Vejle?
AC Horsens 2–1 Vejle is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for AC Horsens vs Vejle?
AC Horsens 1.49, Vejle 1.48 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is AC Horsens vs Vejle?
Friday 2 October 2026, 11:00 WAT – Friendlies Clubs.