- λ home
- 1.55
- λ away
- 0.37
- Σλ total
- 1.92
- P(over 2.5)
- 35%
- P(BTTS)
- 44%
- Modal score
- 1–0 22.7%
Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Naft Bandar Abbas prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Pars Jonoubi JAM v Naft Bandar Abbas: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Pars Jonoubi JAM v Naft Bandar Abbas are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (22 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pars Jonoubi JAM (home) | 0.96 | 1.39 | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| Naft Bandar Abbas (away) | 0.80 | 0.72 | 0.61 | 0.35 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 0.96 × 1.39 × 1.13 ≈ 1.50
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.85 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.50 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.28 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.92 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.55, λaway = 0.37
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 67.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 8.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 22.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Pars Jonoubi JAM | 65.0% | 69.0% | 67.2% | 68.2% |
| X Draw | 26.7% | 22.0% | 22.7% | 22.3% |
| 2 Naft Bandar Abbas | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Pars Jonoubi JAM | 68.2% | 1.47 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -8.6% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.49 | 3.97 | 25.2% | -11.5% | |
| 2 · Naft Bandar Abbas | 9.5% | 10.54 | 8.85 | 11.3% | -16.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 90.5% | 1.10 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 31.8% | 3.15 | 2.68 | 37.3% | -14.9% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -10.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Pars Jonoubi JAM | 87.8% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Naft Bandar Abbas | 12.2% | 8.19 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 61.9% | 1.62 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -14.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 38.1% | 2.62 | 2.73 | 36.6% | +4.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35.0% | 2.85 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -19.4% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -1.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 12.9% | 7.73 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 87.1% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 44.0% | 2.27 | 2.64 | 37.9% | +16.2% | |
| BTTS no | 56.0% | 1.79 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -21.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.2% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.8% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 8.0% | 12.48 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.650 × 1.52 − 1 = -0.012 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Pars Jonoubi JAM | Naft Bandar Abbas |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWWWW | LDLDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Pars Jonoubi JAM 68% to win. Standings: Pars Jonoubi JAM 1st on 21, Naft Bandar Abbas 14th on 7.
Form
Pars Jonoubi JAM have five wins from their last six (D W W W W W). Latest: 0–0 away at Mes Rafsanjan. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Naft Bandar Abbas: L D L D L D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to Novin Ahvaz. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jun 2026): Pars Jonoubi JAM 0–0 Naft Bandar Abbas. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Pars Jonoubi JAM 1.55 · Naft Bandar Abbas 0.37 · total 1.92. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 65%, odds 1.52 v fair 1.54. Most probable score: Pars Jonoubi JAM 1–0 Naft Bandar Abbas. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 2 Jun 2026Pars Jonoubi JAM0–0Naft Bandar Abbas
Azadegan League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pars Jonoubi JAM | 9 | +8 | 21 |
| 2 |  Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 9 | +4 | 18 |
| 3 |  Fard Alborz | 9 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 |  Mes Rafsanjan | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  Mes Soongoun | 9 | +1 | 15 |
| 6 |  Shahin Bandar Ameri | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 |  Ario Eslamshahr | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 |  Naft Gachsaran | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Novin Ahvaz | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Saipa | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 |  Naft Masjed Soleyman | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 |  Be'sat Kermanshah | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Mes Kerman | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 |  Naft Bandar Abbas | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 |  Niroye Zamini | 9 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 |  Havadar | 9 | -9 | 4 |
More Azadegan League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Naft Bandar Abbas?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.52 by the bookmakers.
What are the Pars Jonoubi JAM v Naft Bandar Abbas probabilities?
Pars Jonoubi JAM win 68%, draw 22%, Naft Bandar Abbas win 9%.
What is the most probable score for Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Naft Bandar Abbas?
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1–0 Naft Bandar Abbas is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Naft Bandar Abbas?
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1.55, Naft Bandar Abbas 0.37 – over 2.5 at 35%, BTTS at 44%.
What time is Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Naft Bandar Abbas?
Monday 9 November 2026, 14:15 WAT – Azadegan League.