- λ home
- 1.14
- λ away
- 0.99
- Σλ total
- 2.12
- P(over 2.5)
- 36%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.6%
Novin Ahvaz vs Ario Eslamshahr prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Novin Ahvaz v Ario Eslamshahr: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Novin Ahvaz v Ario Eslamshahr are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (9 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novin Ahvaz (home) | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.87 | 0.75 |
| Ario Eslamshahr (away) | 0.80 | 1.04 | 0.88 | 0.74 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 0.96 × 0.91 × 0.87 ≈ 0.75
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.49 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.06 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.18 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.12 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.14, λaway = 0.99
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 39.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 29.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Novin Ahvaz | 31.0% | 45.0% | 35.3% | 40.9% |
| X Draw | 38.8% | 20.0% | 33.9% | 25.8% |
| 2 Ario Eslamshahr | 30.2% | 35.0% | 30.8% | 33.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Novin Ahvaz | 40.9% | 2.44 | 2.52 | 39.7% | +3.2% | |
| X · Draw | 25.8% | 3.87 | 2.63 | 38.0% | -32.1% | |
| 2 · Ario Eslamshahr | 33.2% | 3.01 | 2.89 | 34.6% | -3.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 66.8% | 1.50 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -11.2% | |
| X2 | 59.1% | 1.69 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -15.5% | |
| 12 | 74.2% | 1.35 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -6.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Novin Ahvaz | 55.2% | 1.81 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ario Eslamshahr | 44.8% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -9.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 36.6% | 2.73 | 2.55 | 39.2% | -6.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36.4% | 2.75 | 2.47 | 40.5% | -10.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -7.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 16.6% | 6.02 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 83.4% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 52.6% | 1.90 | 2.07 | 48.3% | +8.9% | |
| BTTS no | 47.4% | 2.11 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -22.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 28.1% | 3.55 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 48.3% | 2.07 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.6% | 4.24 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.526 × 2.07 − 1 = +0.089 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.083 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Novin Ahvaz | Ario Eslamshahr |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWDDD | LLWWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-4-0 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Novin Ahvaz 41%, draw 26%, Ario Eslamshahr 33%. Standings: Novin Ahvaz 9th on 12, Ario Eslamshahr 7th on 13.
Form
Sequence for Novin Ahvaz: W D W D D D, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–0 away at Naft Bandar Abbas. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Ario Eslamshahr have three wins from their last six (L L W W L W). Latest: 0–3 at home to Fard Alborz. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Novin Ahvaz 1.14 · Ario Eslamshahr 0.99 · total 2.12. Low total: under 2.5 64%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 53%, odds 2.07 v fair 1.90. Most probable score: Novin Ahvaz 2–1 Ario Eslamshahr. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Azadegan League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pars Jonoubi JAM | 9 | +8 | 21 |
| 2 |  Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 9 | +4 | 18 |
| 3 |  Fard Alborz | 9 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 |  Mes Rafsanjan | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  Mes Soongoun | 9 | +1 | 15 |
| 6 |  Shahin Bandar Ameri | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 |  Ario Eslamshahr | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 |  Naft Gachsaran | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Novin Ahvaz | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Saipa | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 |  Naft Masjed Soleyman | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 |  Be'sat Kermanshah | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Mes Kerman | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 |  Naft Bandar Abbas | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 |  Niroye Zamini | 9 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 |  Havadar | 9 | -9 | 4 |
More Azadegan League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Novin Ahvaz vs Ario Eslamshahr?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 53, priced around 2.07 by the bookmakers.
What are the Novin Ahvaz v Ario Eslamshahr probabilities?
Novin Ahvaz win 41%, draw 26%, Ario Eslamshahr win 33%.
What is the most probable score for Novin Ahvaz vs Ario Eslamshahr?
Novin Ahvaz 2–1 Ario Eslamshahr is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Novin Ahvaz vs Ario Eslamshahr?
Novin Ahvaz 1.14, Ario Eslamshahr 0.99 – over 2.5 at 36%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Novin Ahvaz vs Ario Eslamshahr?
Monday 9 November 2026, 14:15 WAT – Azadegan League.