- λ home
- 1.35
- λ away
- 0.28
- Σλ total
- 1.63
- P(over 2.5)
- 24%
- P(BTTS)
- 40%
- Modal score
- 1–0 26.5%
Saipa vs Havadar prediction & xG model: Saipa to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Saipa v Havadar: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipSaipa to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Saipa v Havadar are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (22 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saipa (home) | 0.96 | 0.84 | 0.82 | 0.66 |
| Havadar (away) | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.77 | 0.43 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 0.96 × 0.84 × 0.82 ≈ 0.66
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.09 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.44 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 1.78 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.63 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.35, λaway = 0.28
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 7.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 26.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Saipa | 34.1% | 73.0% | 59.7% | 67.4% |
| X Draw | 46.1% | 18.0% | 28.8% | 22.5% |
| 2 Havadar | 19.8% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 10.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Saipa pick | 67.4% | 1.48 | 1.51 | 66.2% | +1.8% | |
| X · Draw | 22.5% | 4.44 | 3.13 | 31.9% | -29.5% | |
| 2 · Havadar | 10.0% | 9.96 | 7.85 | 12.7% | -21.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 90.0% | 1.11 | 1.18 | 84.7% | +6.1% | |
| X2 | 32.6% | 3.07 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -28.3% | |
| 12 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -3.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Saipa | 87.0% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Havadar | 13.0% | 7.71 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -12.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -3.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 24.4% | 4.10 | 3.45 | 29.0% | -15.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -6.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 8.2% | 12.13 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 91.8% | 1.09 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 39.9% | 2.51 | 3.43 | 29.2% | +36.7% | |
| BTTS no | 60.1% | 1.66 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -24.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 52.5% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 6.6% | 15.26 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.674 × 1.51 − 1 = +0.018 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.035 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.9% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Saipa | Havadar |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDLLW | DDLDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 0.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 0% |
| BTTS | 33% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 83% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Saipa 67% to win. Standings: Saipa 10th on 12, Havadar 16th on 4.
Form
Sequence for Saipa: D L D L L W, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Be'sat Kermanshah. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell.
Havadar, last six: D D L D L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Mes Soongoun. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.2 per match.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jun 2026): Saipa 0–0 Havadar. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Saipa 1.35 · Havadar 0.28 · total 1.63. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 76%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Saipa to win, probability 67%, odds 1.51 v fair 1.48. Most probable score: Saipa 1–0 Havadar. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 9 Jun 2026Saipa0–0Havadar
Azadegan League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pars Jonoubi JAM | 9 | +8 | 21 |
| 2 |  Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 9 | +4 | 18 |
| 3 |  Fard Alborz | 9 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 |  Mes Rafsanjan | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  Mes Soongoun | 9 | +1 | 15 |
| 6 |  Shahin Bandar Ameri | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 |  Ario Eslamshahr | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 |  Naft Gachsaran | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Novin Ahvaz | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Saipa | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 |  Naft Masjed Soleyman | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 |  Be'sat Kermanshah | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Mes Kerman | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 |  Naft Bandar Abbas | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 |  Niroye Zamini | 9 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 |  Havadar | 9 | -9 | 4 |
More Azadegan League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Saipa vs Havadar?
The Model pick is Saipa to win with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.51 by the bookmakers.
What are the Saipa v Havadar probabilities?
Saipa win 67%, draw 23%, Havadar win 10%.
What is the most probable score for Saipa vs Havadar?
Saipa 1–0 Havadar is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Saipa vs Havadar?
Saipa 1.35, Havadar 0.28 – over 2.5 at 24%, BTTS at 40%.
What time is Saipa vs Havadar?
Monday 9 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – Azadegan League.