- λ home
- 1.36
- λ away
- 1.59
- Σλ total
- 2.95
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.3%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs HNK Gorica prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Bsk Bijelo Brdo 34% · draw 21% · HNK Gorica 45%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo v HNK Gorica: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Bsk Bijelo Brdo v HNK Gorica are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.50 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.49 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.95 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.36, λaway = 1.59
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 32.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 43.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bsk Bijelo Brdo | – | 37.0% | 29.8% | 34.0% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 27.5% | 21.4% |
| 2 HNK Gorica | – | 46.0% | 42.6% | 44.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.117 → 11.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 34.0% | 2.94 | 3.00 | 33.3% | +2.0% | |
| X · Draw | 21.4% | 4.67 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -30.4% | |
| 2 · HNK Gorica | 44.6% | 2.24 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -6.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 55.4% | 1.80 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -11.3% | |
| X2 | 66.0% | 1.51 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -14.2% | |
| 12 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -1.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 43.3% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| DNB HNK Gorica | 56.7% | 1.76 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 75.1% | 1.33 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -0.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.9% | 4.02 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -19.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | 2.08 | 48.1% | +6.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.0% | 2.04 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -15.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.6% | 3.38 | 3.75 | 26.7% | +10.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -12.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.7% | 1.79 | 1.83 | 54.6% | +2.0% | |
| BTTS no | 44.3% | 2.26 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -19.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.8% | 3.74 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.0% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.3% | 3.01 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.751 × 1.33 − 1 = -0.001 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | HNK Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWDLD | LLDDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
HNK Gorica narrowly ahead at 45%; Bsk Bijelo Brdo 34%.
Form
Bsk Bijelo Brdo, last six: L L W D L D – one win in total. Latest: 1–4 away at Sesvete. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Sequence for HNK Gorica: L L D D L D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 3–5 at home to NK Slaven Belupo. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1.36 · HNK Gorica 1.59 · total 2.95. Goals expected – 51% for over 2.5 and 56% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 75%, odds 1.33 v fair 1.33. Most probable score: Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1–2 HNK Gorica. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
More Cup predictions
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Segesta SisakFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs HNK Gorica?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 75, priced around 1.33 by the bookmakers.
What are the Bsk Bijelo Brdo v HNK Gorica probabilities?
Bsk Bijelo Brdo win 34%, draw 21%, HNK Gorica win 45%.
What is the most probable score for Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs HNK Gorica?
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1–2 HNK Gorica is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs HNK Gorica?
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1.36, HNK Gorica 1.59 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs HNK Gorica?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – Cup.