- λ home
- 3.69
- λ away
- 2.07
- Σλ total
- 5.76
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 3–2 5.7%
Rudes vs Segesta Sisak prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Rudes v Segesta Sisak: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Rudes v Segesta Sisak are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (31 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudes (home) | 1.66 | 1.19 | 0.80 | 1.59 |
| Segesta Sisak (away) | 1.38 | 1.53 | 0.91 | 1.92 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.19 × 0.80 ≈ 1.59
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.51 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 9.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.06 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 5.76 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 3.69, λaway = 2.07
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 67.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 14.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.0%
- Most probable score
- 3–2 · 5.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Rudes | 31.9% | 64.0% | 63.1% | 63.6% |
| X Draw | 22.8% | 24.0% | 19.9% | 22.3% |
| 2 Segesta Sisak | 45.3% | 12.0% | 17.1% | 14.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.117 → 11.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Rudes | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -9.7% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.49 | 4.50 | 22.2% | +0.2% | |
| 2 · Segesta Sisak | 14.1% | 7.08 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -25.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.9% | 1.16 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -4.7% | |
| X2 | 36.4% | 2.75 | 2.60 | 38.5% | -5.4% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -12.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Rudes | 81.8% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Segesta Sisak | 18.2% | 5.50 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 88.1% | 1.14 | 1.20 | 83.3% | +5.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 11.9% | 8.39 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -48.4% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 75.8% | 1.32 | 1.60 | 62.5% | +21.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 24.2% | 4.13 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -44.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +50.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -40.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.7% | 1.67 | 1.83 | 54.6% | +9.3% | |
| BTTS no | 40.3% | 2.48 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -26.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 53.9% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 24.9% | 4.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.2% | 4.72 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.758 × 1.60 − 1 = +0.213 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.355 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Rudes | Segesta Sisak |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLWD | LDWWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Rudes 64% to win.
Form
Sequence for Rudes: W W W L W D, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–0 away at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Segesta Sisak: L D W W L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to Opatija. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Rudes 3.69 · Segesta Sisak 2.07 · total 5.76. Goals expected – 76% for over 2.5 and 60% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 76%, odds 1.60 v fair 1.32. Most probable score: Rudes 3–2 Segesta Sisak. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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HNK Gorica0Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Rudes vs Segesta Sisak?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 76, priced around 1.60 by the bookmakers.
What are the Rudes v Segesta Sisak probabilities?
Rudes win 64%, draw 22%, Segesta Sisak win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Rudes vs Segesta Sisak?
Rudes 3–2 Segesta Sisak is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Rudes vs Segesta Sisak?
Rudes 3.69, Segesta Sisak 2.07 – over 2.5 at 76%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Rudes vs Segesta Sisak?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at SC Rudes – Cup.