- λ home
- 0.93
- λ away
- 2.33
- Σλ total
- 3.26
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 0–2 10.5%
Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Lincoln Red Imps FC v HNK Hajduk Split: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Lincoln Red Imps FC v HNK Hajduk Split are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (21 and 36 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln Red Imps FC (home) | 1.66 | 1.25 | 0.52 | 1.07 |
| HNK Hajduk Split (away) | 1.38 | 1.54 | 0.62 | 1.31 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.25 × 0.52 ≈ 1.07
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.38 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.70 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.89 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.26 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.93, λaway = 2.33
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 13.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 68.8%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 10.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Lincoln Red Imps FC | 29.8% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 11.3% |
| X Draw | 29.0% | 24.0% | 18.9% | 21.8% |
| 2 HNK Hajduk Split | 41.2% | 65.0% | 69.3% | 66.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.060 → 6.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Lincoln Red Imps FC | 11.3% | 8.82 | 8.00 | 12.5% | -9.3% | |
| X · Draw | 21.8% | 4.58 | 5.00 | 20.0% | +9.2% | |
| 2 · HNK Hajduk Split | 66.8% | 1.50 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -9.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 33.2% | 3.01 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -0.5% | |
| X2 | 88.7% | 1.13 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -4.2% | |
| 12 | 78.2% | 1.28 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -7.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Lincoln Red Imps FC | 14.5% | 6.90 | – | – | – | |
| DNB HNK Hajduk Split | 85.5% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.0% | 1.23 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -2.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.0% | 5.26 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -17.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.70 | 58.8% | +0.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 40.7% | 2.45 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -14.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +0.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -11.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.0% | 1.72 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +15.9% | |
| BTTS no | 42.0% | 2.38 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -27.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.5% | 6.90 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.9% | 2.86 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 50.6% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.580 × 2.00 − 1 = +0.159 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.159 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Lincoln Red Imps FC | HNK Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWLW | WDWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: HNK Hajduk Split 67%, Lincoln Red Imps FC 11%. Standings: Lincoln Red Imps FC 22nd on 3, HNK Hajduk Split 13th on 6.
Form
Sequence for Lincoln Red Imps FC: W W L W L W, so four victories in six. Latest: 5–0 away at Hound Dogs. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for HNK Hajduk Split: W D W W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 5–0 at home to HNK Gorica. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Lincoln Red Imps FC 0.93 · HNK Hajduk Split 2.33 · total 3.26. Goals expected – 59% for over 2.5 and 58% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 2.00 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Lincoln Red Imps FC 1–2 HNK Hajduk Split. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 |  Panathinaikos | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 |  Twente | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 |  Monaco | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Brighton | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |  Brann | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |  FC Copenhagen | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 |  Universitatea Craiova | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Mjallby AIF | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 |  St. Truiden | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Ajax | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Trabzonspor | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atalanta | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 |  SC Braga | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 |  Gent | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 |  Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 |  FC Thun | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 |  Borac Banja Luka | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 |  FK Jablonec | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 |  Aarhus | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 25 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 26 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 |  Kairat Almaty | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 |  CSKA Sofia | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 |  Pafos | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 31 |  Getafe | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 33 |  KuPS | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Midtjylland | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa Conference League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 2.00 by the bookmakers.
What are the Lincoln Red Imps FC v HNK Hajduk Split probabilities?
Lincoln Red Imps FC win 11%, draw 22%, HNK Hajduk Split win 67%.
What is the most probable score for Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Lincoln Red Imps FC 1–2 HNK Hajduk Split is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Lincoln Red Imps FC 0.93, HNK Hajduk Split 2.33 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Thursday 5 November 2026, 18:45 WAT, at Europa Point Stadium – UEFA Europa Conference League.