- λ home
- 0.59
- λ away
- 1.59
- Σλ total
- 2.19
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 0–1 17.9%
Aarhus vs SC Braga prediction & xG model: SC Braga or draw
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Aarhus v SC Braga: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipSC Braga or draw✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Aarhus v SC Braga are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 1.60 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.67 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.19 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.59, λaway = 1.59
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 13.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 61.8%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 17.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aarhus | – | 8.0% | 24.8% | 15.1% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 26.9% | 21.7% |
| 2 SC Braga | – | 74.0% | 48.3% | 63.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.062 → 6.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Aarhus | 15.1% | 6.64 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -42.8% | |
| X · Draw | 21.7% | 4.60 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -23.9% | |
| 2 · SC Braga | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +23.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 36.8% | 2.72 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -33.8% | |
| X2 pick | 84.9% | 1.18 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +6.2% | |
| 12 | 78.3% | 1.28 | 1.28 | 78.1% | +0.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Aarhus | 19.2% | 5.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB SC Braga | 80.8% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.7% | 1.46 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -12.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.3% | 3.20 | 3.50 | 28.6% | +9.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.7% | 2.29 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -17.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | 1.90 | 52.6% | +7.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.4% | 4.27 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -23.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.6% | 1.31 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +1.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.0% | 1.89 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -4.5% | |
| BTTS no | 47.0% | 2.13 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -10.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 12.4% | 8.05 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.5% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 42.0% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.849 × 1.25 − 1 = +0.062 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.247 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Aarhus | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWDDL | WDLWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: SC Braga 63%, Aarhus 15%. Standings: Aarhus 24th on 2, SC Braga 17th on 4.
Form
Aarhus, last six: L W W D D L – two wins in total. Latest: 0–2 away at Brondby. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
SC Braga have two wins from their last six (W D L W L L). Latest: 3–0 at home to Famalicao. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Aarhus 0.59 · SC Braga 1.59 · total 2.19. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: SC Braga or draw, probability 85%, odds 1.25 v fair 1.18. Most probable score: Aarhus 0–1 SC Braga. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 |  Panathinaikos | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 |  Twente | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 |  Monaco | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Brighton | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |  Brann | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |  FC Copenhagen | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 |  Universitatea Craiova | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Mjallby AIF | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 |  St. Truiden | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Ajax | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Trabzonspor | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atalanta | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 |  SC Braga | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 |  Gent | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 |  Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 |  FC Thun | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 |  Borac Banja Luka | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 |  FK Jablonec | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 |  Aarhus | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 25 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 26 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 |  Kairat Almaty | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 |  CSKA Sofia | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 |  Pafos | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 31 |  Getafe | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 33 |  KuPS | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Midtjylland | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa Conference League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Aarhus vs SC Braga?
The Model pick is SC Braga or draw with a model probability of 85, priced around 1.25 by the bookmakers.
What are the Aarhus v SC Braga probabilities?
Aarhus win 15%, draw 22%, SC Braga win 63%.
What is the most probable score for Aarhus vs SC Braga?
Aarhus 0–1 SC Braga is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Aarhus vs SC Braga?
Aarhus 0.59, SC Braga 1.59 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Aarhus vs SC Braga?
Thursday 5 November 2026, 18:45 WAT, at Cepheus Park – UEFA Europa Conference League.