- λ home
- 2.07
- λ away
- 0.93
- Σλ total
- 3.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.6%
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia prediction & xG model: NEC Nijmegen or draw
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNEC Nijmegen or draw✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
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How the numbers for NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 3.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.07, λaway = 0.93
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 63.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.2%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.6%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 NEC Nijmegen | – | 72.0% | 50.0% | 62.8% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 25.7% | 21.8% |
| 2 Levski Sofia | – | 9.0% | 24.3% | 15.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.081 → 8.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · NEC Nijmegen | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +16.1% | |
| X · Draw | 21.8% | 4.59 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -21.5% | |
| 2 · Levski Sofia | 15.4% | 6.48 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -41.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X pick | 84.6% | 1.18 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +5.7% | |
| X2 | 37.2% | 2.68 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -31.1% | |
| 12 | 78.2% | 1.28 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +0.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB NEC Nijmegen | 80.3% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Levski Sofia | 19.7% | 5.06 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 5.02 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.3% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -2.1% | |
| BTTS no | 41.4% | 2.42 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -9.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.2% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.7% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.1% | 6.21 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.846 × 1.25 − 1 = +0.057 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.228 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | NEC Nijmegen | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLLDL | WLDLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-3-3 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
NEC Nijmegen at 63%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: NEC Nijmegen 12th on 7, Levski Sofia 10th on 7.
Form
NEC Nijmegen have zero wins from their last six (D D L L D L). Latest: 1–1 away at Ajax. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Levski Sofia, last six: W L D L W W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Cherno More Varna. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG NEC Nijmegen 2.07 · Levski Sofia 0.93 · total 3.00. High total: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: NEC Nijmegen or draw, probability 85%, odds 1.25 v fair 1.18. Most probable score: NEC Nijmegen 2–0 Levski Sofia. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
The Model pick is NEC Nijmegen or draw with a model probability of 85, priced around 1.25 by the bookmakers.
What are the NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia probabilities?
NEC Nijmegen win 63%, draw 22%, Levski Sofia win 15%.
What is the most probable score for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
NEC Nijmegen 2–0 Levski Sofia is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
NEC Nijmegen 2.07, Levski Sofia 0.93 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
Thursday 15 October 2026, 20:00 WAT, at Stadion de Goffert – UEFA Europa League.