- λ home
- 0.48
- λ away
- 0.02
- Σλ total
- 0.50
- P(over 2.5)
- 1%
- P(BTTS)
- 36%
- Modal score
- 0–0 60.7%
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Beer Sheva: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNot both teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Beer Sheva are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (35 and 32 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar (home) | 1.66 | 1.51 | 0.80 | 2.02 |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva (away) | 1.38 | 1.24 | 0.68 | 1.16 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.51 × 0.80 ≈ 2.02
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.18 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 0.50 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 0.50 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.48, λaway = 0.02
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 61.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 1.2%
- Most probable score
- 0–0 · 60.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 AZ Alkmaar | 56.7% | 61.0% | 71.2% | 65.3% |
| X Draw | 22.3% | 23.0% | 18.5% | 21.1% |
| 2 Hapoel Beer Sheva | 21.1% | 16.0% | 10.3% | 13.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.080 → 8.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · AZ Alkmaar | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -15.1% | |
| X · Draw | 21.1% | 4.74 | 5.00 | 20.0% | +5.6% | |
| 2 · Hapoel Beer Sheva | 13.6% | 7.35 | 9.00 | 11.1% | +22.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 86.4% | 1.16 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -7.6% | |
| X2 | 34.7% | 2.88 | 3.40 | 29.4% | +18.0% | |
| 12 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -9.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB AZ Alkmaar | 82.8% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Hapoel Beer Sheva | 17.2% | 5.80 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 9.0% | 11.09 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 91.0% | 1.10 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 1.4% | 69.50 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 98.6% | 1.01 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 0.2% | 200.00 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 99.8% | 1.00 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 36.0% | 2.78 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -33.4% | |
| BTTS no pick | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +24.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 18.9% | 5.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 80.4% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 0.7% | 140.85 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.640 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.248 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.261 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Hapoel Beer Sheva |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLDWW | WWDWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – AZ Alkmaar 65% to win. Standings: AZ Alkmaar 14th on 6, Hapoel Beer Sheva 33rd on 1.
Form
AZ Alkmaar, last six: L W L D W W – three wins in total. Latest: 0–2 away at Feyenoord. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Hapoel Beer Sheva, last six: W W D W L D – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Ironi Tiberias. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG AZ Alkmaar 0.48 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 0.02 · total 0.50. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 99%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Not both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.56. Most probable score: AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Beer Sheva probabilities?
AZ Alkmaar win 65%, draw 21%, Hapoel Beer Sheva win 14%.
What is the most probable score for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
AZ Alkmaar 0.48, Hapoel Beer Sheva 0.02 – over 2.5 at 1%, BTTS at 36%.
What time is AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Thursday 15 October 2026, 17:45 WAT, at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar） – UEFA Europa League.