- λ home
- 2.87
- λ away
- 1.01
- Σλ total
- 3.88
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.6%
Benfica vs Celtic prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Benfica v Celtic: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Benfica v Celtic are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (32 and 38 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica (home) | 1.66 | 2.14 | 0.74 | 2.63 |
| Celtic (away) | 1.38 | 1.60 | 0.57 | 1.26 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 2.14 × 0.74 ≈ 2.63
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.89 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.88 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.88 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.87, λaway = 1.01
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 75.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 14.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 10.3%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Benfica | 66.0% | 75.0% | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| X Draw | 17.7% | 15.0% | 15.6% | 15.3% |
| 2 Celtic | 16.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.067 → 6.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Benfica | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.3% | |
| X · Draw | 15.3% | 6.55 | 6.00 | 16.7% | -8.4% | |
| 2 · Celtic | 9.7% | 10.27 | 10.00 | 10.0% | -2.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 90.3% | 1.11 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -5.2% | |
| X2 | 25.0% | 4.00 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -2.5% | |
| 12 | 84.7% | 1.18 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -5.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Benfica | 88.5% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Celtic | 11.5% | 8.70 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 89.9% | 1.11 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 10.1% | 9.92 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 25.6% | 3.90 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 45.7% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 50.2% | 1.99 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -7.1% | |
| BTTS no | 49.8% | 2.01 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -5.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 57.1% | 1.75 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 29.9% | 3.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.0% | 7.68 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.502 × 1.85 − 1 = -0.071 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Benfica | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWWWW | WLLLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Benfica 75% to win. Standings: Benfica 1st on 12, Celtic 32nd on 3.
Form
Sequence for Benfica: W L W W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to Vitória SC. 2.5 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Celtic, last six: W L L L W W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Motherwell. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Benfica 2.87 · Celtic 1.01 · total 3.88. Goals expected – 74% for over 2.5 and 50% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 50%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.99. Most probable score: Benfica 2–1 Celtic. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Benfica vs Celtic?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 50, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Benfica v Celtic probabilities?
Benfica win 75%, draw 15%, Celtic win 10%.
What is the most probable score for Benfica vs Celtic?
Benfica 2–1 Celtic is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Benfica vs Celtic?
Benfica 2.87, Celtic 1.01 – over 2.5 at 74%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Benfica vs Celtic?
Thursday 15 October 2026, 20:00 WAT, at Estádio da Luz – UEFA Europa League.