- λ home
- 1.26
- λ away
- 0.24
- Σλ total
- 1.50
- P(over 2.5)
- 19%
- P(BTTS)
- 36%
- Modal score
- 1–0 28.2%
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Bournemouth v Sturm Graz: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNot both teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Bournemouth v Sturm Graz are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 1.50 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 1.50 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.26, λaway = 0.24
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 63.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 29.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 6.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 28.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bournemouth | – | 62.0% | 77.3% | 68.4% |
| X Draw | – | 24.0% | 14.3% | 19.9% |
| 2 Sturm Graz | – | 14.0% | 8.4% | 11.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.078 → 7.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Bournemouth | 68.4% | 1.46 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -17.9% | |
| X · Draw | 19.9% | 5.02 | 6.50 | 15.4% | +29.4% | |
| 2 · Sturm Graz | 11.7% | 8.58 | 11.00 | 9.1% | +28.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.3% | 1.13 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -7.2% | |
| X2 | 31.6% | 3.17 | 4.20 | 23.8% | +32.6% | |
| 12 | 80.1% | 1.25 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -11.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Bournemouth | 85.4% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sturm Graz | 14.6% | 6.87 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 44.2% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 19.1% | 5.23 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 80.9% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 6.6% | 15.23 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 93.4% | 1.07 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 36.0% | 2.78 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -33.4% | |
| BTTS no pick | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +22.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 54.7% | 1.83 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 5.8% | 17.12 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.640 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.223 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.245 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Bournemouth | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWDWD | WWLDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Bournemouth at 68%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Bournemouth 2nd on 12, Sturm Graz 24th on 4.
Form
Bournemouth have two wins from their last six (L L W D W D). Latest: 1–5 away at Chelsea. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Sequence for Sturm Graz: W W L D W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 2–0 away at Austria Vienna. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Bournemouth 1.26 · Sturm Graz 0.24 · total 1.50. Low total: under 2.5 81%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Not both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.56. Most probable score: Bournemouth 1–0 Sturm Graz. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Bournemouth v Sturm Graz probabilities?
Bournemouth win 68%, draw 20%, Sturm Graz win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
Bournemouth 1–0 Sturm Graz is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
Bournemouth 1.26, Sturm Graz 0.24 – over 2.5 at 19%, BTTS at 36%.
What time is Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
Thursday 15 October 2026, 20:00 WAT, at Vitality Stadium – UEFA Europa League.