Europe UEFA U19 Championship Qualification Sat 14 Nov 2026 · Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost Full time

Serbia U19

LLLLW

4–0

Half-time 1–0

Azerbaijan U19

77%P(1)18%P(X)5%P(2)

λ home: 2.71
λ away: 0.69
Σλ total: 3.41
P(over 2.5): 72%
P(BTTS): 52%
Modal score: 2–0 12.2%

Serbia U19 vs Azerbaijan U19 prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Serbia U19 v Azerbaijan U19: how the Arena called it

Full time: 4–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Serbia U19 v Azerbaijan U19 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (10 and 2 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Serbia U19 (home)	1.66	0.95	1.85	–
Azerbaijan U19 (away)	1.38	0.88	1.07	–

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.95 × 1.85 ≈ –

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	2.60	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	4.08	55%
Blended total λ	3.41	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.71, λ_away = 0.69

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Serbia U19 λ = 2.71

06.6%

118.0%

224.4%

322.1%

415.0%

5+13.9%

Azerbaijan U19 λ = 0.69

050.1%

134.6%

212.0%

32.8%

40.5%

5+0.1%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Ser \ Aze012345+

03.32.30.8···

19.06.22.2···

2128.52.90.7··

3117.62.60.6··

47.55.21.8···

5+7.04.81.7···

Σ home-win cells: 79.8%
Σ draw cells: 13.2%
Σ away-win cells: 7.0%
Most probable score: 2–0 · 12.2%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Serbia U19	–	70.0%	87.7%	77.4%
X Draw	–	25.0%	8.3%	18.0%
2 Azerbaijan U19	–	5.0%	4.0%	4.6%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.076 → 7.6% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Serbia U19	77.4%	1.29	1.06	94.3%	-17.9%
X · Draw	18.0%	5.56	11.25	8.9%	+102.2%
2 · Azerbaijan U19	4.6%	21.75	23.00	4.3%	+5.7%
Double chance
1X	95.4%	1.05	–	–	–
X2	22.6%	4.43	7.70	13.0%	+73.8%
12	82.0%	1.22	1.01	99.0%	-17.2%
Draw no bet
DNB Serbia U19	94.4%	1.06	–	–	–
DNB Azerbaijan U19	5.6%	17.84	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	85.4%	1.17	–	–	–
Under 1.5	14.6%	6.84	9.20	10.9%	+34.6%
Over 2.5	71.7%	1.39	1.17	85.5%	-16.1%
Under 2.5	28.3%	3.53	3.98	25.1%	+12.6%
Over 3.5	51.7%	1.93	1.58	63.3%	-18.3%
Under 3.5	48.3%	2.07	2.29	43.7%	+10.6%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	51.7%	1.93	1.98	50.5%	+2.4%
BTTS no	48.3%	2.07	1.72	58.1%	-16.9%
Half-time
HT 1	59.3%	1.69	–	–	–
HT X	31.3%	3.20	–	–	–
HT 2	9.4%	10.62	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability51.7%

Fair odds1.93

Best odds1.98

EV per unit+2.4%

EV = 0.517 × 1.98 − 1 = +0.024 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.024 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.6% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Serbia U19	Azerbaijan U19
Sequence	WLLLLL	L
Matches	6	1
W-D-L	1-0-5	0-0-1
Points per match	0.50	0.00
Goals for / match	0.83	2.00
Goals against / match	2.17	7.00
Over 2.5	67%	100%
BTTS	33%	100%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	67%	0%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Serbia U19 at 77%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.

Form

Serbia U19, last six: W L L L L L – one win in total. Latest: 4–1 at home to Faroe Islands U19. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. No shut-outs in that run.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Serbia U19 2.71 · Azerbaijan U19 0.69 · total 3.41. High total: over 2.5 72%, BTTS 52%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 52%, odds 1.98 v fair 1.93. Most probable score: Serbia U19 2–1 Azerbaijan U19. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.