Europe UEFA U19 Championship Qualification Sat 14 Nov 2026 · SRC Trate Upcoming

Czechia U19

WLLDW

12:00

Saturday · WAT

Croatia U19

DWLLW

43%P(1)21%P(X)36%P(2)

λ home: 1.36
λ away: 1.21
Σλ total: 2.57
P(over 2.5): 48%
P(BTTS): 60%
Modal score: 1–1 12.6%

Czechia U19 vs Croatia U19 prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals

The Arena debate

Czechia U19 v Croatia U19: who are you backing?

Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off

Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals73% chance · @1.27

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Czechia U19 v Croatia U19 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	2.50	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.63	55%
Blended total λ	2.57	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.36, λ_away = 1.21

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Czechia U19 λ = 1.36

025.6%

134.9%

223.8%

310.8%

43.7%

5+1.3%

Croatia U19 λ = 1.21

029.9%

136.1%

221.8%

38.8%

42.6%

5+0.8%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Cze \ Cro012345+

07.69.25.62.20.7·

110137.63.10.9·

27.18.65.22.10.6·

33.23.92.40.9··

41.11.30.8···

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 40.4%
Σ draw cells: 26.5%
Σ away-win cells: 33.1%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 12.6%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Czechia U19	–	52.0%	30.6%	43.0%
X Draw	–	17.0%	27.3%	21.3%
2 Croatia U19	–	31.0%	42.1%	35.6%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.076 → 7.6% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Czechia U19	43.0%	2.33	3.04	32.9%	+30.7%
X · Draw	21.3%	4.68	3.40	29.4%	-27.4%
2 · Croatia U19	35.6%	2.81	2.21	45.2%	-21.2%
Double chance
1X	64.4%	1.55	1.61	62.1%	+3.6%
X2	57.0%	1.75	1.35	74.1%	-23.1%
12	78.7%	1.27	1.28	78.1%	+0.7%
Draw no bet
DNB Czechia U19	54.7%	1.83	–	–	–
DNB Croatia U19	45.3%	2.21	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	72.6%	1.38	1.25	80.0%	-9.3%
Under 1.5	27.4%	3.64	3.28	30.5%	-10.0%
Over 2.5	48.2%	2.08	1.91	52.4%	-8.0%
Under 2.5	51.8%	1.93	1.83	54.6%	-5.2%
Over 3.5	27.3%	3.66	3.14	31.8%	-14.3%
Under 3.5 pick	72.7%	1.38	1.27	78.7%	-7.7%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	60.0%	1.67	1.71	58.5%	+2.6%
BTTS no	40.0%	2.50	1.99	50.3%	-20.4%
Half-time
HT 1	30.5%	3.28	–	–	–
HT X	43.4%	2.30	–	–	–
HT 2	26.1%	3.83	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickUnder 3.5 goals

Probability72.7%

Fair odds1.38

Best odds1.27

EV per unit-7.7%

EV = 0.727 × 1.27 − 1 = -0.077 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Czechia U19	Croatia U19
Sequence	WDLLWD	WLLWDL
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	2-2-2	2-1-3
Points per match	1.33	1.17
Goals for / match	1.17	1.33
Goals against / match	0.67	1.33
Over 2.5	33%	67%
BTTS	33%	33%
Clean sheets	50%	33%
Failed to score	33%	50%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Slight home preference: Czechia U19 43%, draw 21%, Croatia U19 36%. Standings: Czechia U19 3rd on 3, Croatia U19 1st on 7.

Form

Czechia U19 have two wins from their last six (W D L L W D). Latest: 2–0 at home to Netherlands U19. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Sequence for Croatia U19: W L L W D L, so two victories in six. Latest: 4–1 at home to Hungary U19. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded.

Head to head

Last meeting (Feb 2026): Croatia U19 0–0 Czech Republic U19. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Czechia U19 1.36 · Croatia U19 1.21 · total 2.57. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 60%.

Model selection

Model selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 73%, odds 1.27 v fair 1.38. Most probable score: Czechia U19 1–0 Croatia U19. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.