Europe UEFA U19 Championship Qualification Sat 14 Nov 2026 · Vozdovac Stadium Full time

Montenegro U19

DDLLW

1–0

Half-time 1–0

Faroe Islands U19

LLL

70%P(1)21%P(X)10%P(2)

λ home: 2.15
λ away: 0.69
Σλ total: 2.85
P(over 2.5): 63%
P(BTTS): 59%
Modal score: 2–0 13.4%

Montenegro U19 vs Faroe Islands U19 prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Montenegro U19 v Faroe Islands U19: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Montenegro U19 v Faroe Islands U19 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (6 and 4 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Montenegro U19 (home)	1.66	1.01	1.35	–
Faroe Islands U19 (away)	1.38	0.77	0.91	–

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.01 × 1.35 ≈ –

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	1.80	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.72	55%
Blended total λ	2.85	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.15, λ_away = 0.69

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Montenegro U19 λ = 2.15

011.6%

125.0%

226.9%

319.3%

410.4%

5+6.7%

Faroe Islands U19 λ = 0.69

049.9%

134.7%

212.0%

32.8%

40.5%

5+0.1%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Mon \ Far012345+

05.84.01.4···

1128.73.00.7··

2139.33.20.8··

39.66.72.30.5··

45.23.61.3···

5+3.42.30.8···

Σ home-win cells: 71.0%
Σ draw cells: 18.3%
Σ away-win cells: 10.7%
Most probable score: 2–0 · 13.4%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Montenegro U19	–	68.0%	72.4%	69.9%
X Draw	–	24.0%	15.8%	20.6%
2 Faroe Islands U19	–	8.0%	11.7%	9.6%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.079 → 7.9% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Montenegro U19	69.9%	1.43	1.28	78.1%	-10.6%
X · Draw	20.6%	4.86	5.85	17.1%	+20.4%
2 · Faroe Islands U19	9.6%	10.45	7.90	12.7%	-24.4%
Double chance
1X	90.4%	1.11	1.06	94.3%	-4.1%
X2	30.1%	3.32	3.38	29.6%	+1.9%
12	79.4%	1.26	1.11	90.1%	-11.8%
Draw no bet
DNB Montenegro U19	88.0%	1.14	–	–	–
DNB Faroe Islands U19	12.0%	8.30	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	82.2%	1.22	1.04	96.2%	-14.5%
Under 1.5	17.8%	5.62	6.80	14.7%	+21.1%
Over 2.5	62.9%	1.59	1.26	79.4%	-20.7%
Under 2.5	37.1%	2.70	3.20	31.3%	+18.6%
Over 3.5	42.6%	2.35	1.75	57.1%	-25.4%
Under 3.5 pick	57.4%	1.74	2.01	49.8%	+15.3%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	59.3%	1.69	1.52	65.8%	-9.9%
BTTS no	40.7%	2.45	2.33	42.9%	-5.1%
Half-time
HT 1	50.8%	1.97	–	–	–
HT X	37.5%	2.67	–	–	–
HT 2	11.7%	8.55	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickUnder 3.5 goals

Probability57.4%

Fair odds1.74

Best odds2.01

EV per unit+15.3%

EV = 0.574 × 2.01 − 1 = +0.153 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.151 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 5 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Montenegro U19	Faroe Islands U19
Sequence	WLLDD	LLL
Matches	5	3
W-D-L	1-2-2	0-0-3
Points per match	1.00	0.00
Goals for / match	1.80	1.33
Goals against / match	1.40	3.33
Over 2.5	20%	100%
BTTS	60%	100%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	40%	0%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Strong home favourites – Montenegro U19 70% to win.

Form

Montenegro U19 have one win from their last five (W L L D D). Latest: 7–2 away at Azerbaijan U19. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.4 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.

Sequence for Faroe Islands U19: L L L, so zero victories in three. Latest: 1–4 away at Serbia U19. Per match: 1.3 scored, 3.3 conceded.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Montenegro U19 2.15 · Faroe Islands U19 0.69 · total 2.85. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 63%, BTTS 59%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 57%, odds 2.01 v fair 1.74. Most probable score: Montenegro U19 2–0 Faroe Islands U19. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.