Europe UEFA U19 Championship Qualification Sat 14 Nov 2026 · Espace Oceane Full time

Greece U19

DWDWL

0–0

Half-time 0–0

Norway U19

WWDLL

41%P(1)20%P(X)39%P(2)

λ home: 1.47
λ away: 1.43
Σλ total: 2.90
P(over 2.5): 59%
P(BTTS): 66%
Modal score: 1–1 11.6%

Greece U19 vs Norway U19 prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Greece U19 v Norway U19: how the Arena called it

Full time: 0–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Greece U19 v Norway U19 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (7 and 13 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Greece U19 (home)	1.66	0.82	0.93	1.26
Norway U19 (away)	1.38	0.97	0.79	1.06

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.82 × 0.93 ≈ 1.26

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.32	45%
Statistical xG feed	2.50	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.24	30%
Blended total λ	2.90	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.47, λ_away = 1.43

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Greece U19 λ = 1.47

022.9%

133.8%

224.9%

312.2%

44.5%

5+1.7%

Norway U19 λ = 1.43

024.0%

134.2%

224.5%

311.6%

44.2%

5+1.5%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Gre \ Nor012345+

05.57.85.62.71.0·

18.1128.33.91.40.5

26.08.56.12.91.0·

32.94.23.01.40.5·

41.11.51.10.5··

5+·0.6····

Σ home-win cells: 38.6%
Σ draw cells: 24.8%
Σ away-win cells: 36.6%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 11.6%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Greece U19	40.2%	39.0%	44.3%	41.2%
X Draw	29.5%	16.0%	24.5%	19.6%
2 Norway U19	30.3%	45.0%	31.2%	39.2%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.069 → 6.9% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Greece U19	41.2%	2.42	2.11	47.4%	-13.0%
X · Draw	19.6%	5.11	3.82	26.2%	-25.3%
2 · Norway U19	39.2%	2.55	3.00	33.3%	+17.6%
Double chance
1X	60.8%	1.64	1.36	73.5%	-17.3%
X2	58.8%	1.70	1.68	59.5%	-1.3%
12	80.4%	1.24	1.24	80.6%	-0.3%
Draw no bet
DNB Greece U19	51.3%	1.95	–	–	–
DNB Norway U19	48.7%	2.05	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	80.1%	1.25	1.11	90.1%	-11.1%
Under 1.5	19.9%	5.03	4.95	20.2%	-1.6%
Over 2.5	59.1%	1.69	1.44	69.4%	-14.9%
Under 2.5	40.9%	2.45	2.43	41.2%	-0.7%
Over 3.5	37.9%	2.64	2.19	45.7%	-17.0%
Under 3.5 pick	62.1%	1.61	1.63	61.3%	+1.3%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	66.1%	1.51	1.43	69.9%	-5.4%
BTTS no	33.9%	2.95	2.63	38.0%	-10.9%
Half-time
HT 1	30.4%	3.29	–	–	–
HT X	40.5%	2.47	–	–	–
HT 2	29.1%	3.43	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickUnder 3.5 goals

Probability62.1%

Fair odds1.61

Best odds1.63

EV per unit+1.3%

EV = 0.621 × 1.63 − 1 = +0.013 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.020 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.5% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Greece U19	Norway U19
Sequence	LWDWDD	LLDWWL
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	2-3-1	2-1-3
Points per match	1.50	1.17
Goals for / match	1.50	1.33
Goals against / match	1.17	1.83
Over 2.5	33%	67%
BTTS	50%	50%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	33%	33%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Probabilities are almost level: 41 / 20 / 39% for home, draw, away. Standings: Greece U19 3rd on 2, Norway U19 4th on 1.

Form

Greece U19, last six: L W D W D D – two wins in total. Latest: 0–2 away at Republic of Ireland U19. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded.

Sequence for Norway U19: L L D W W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–6 away at France U19. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Greece U19 1.47 · Norway U19 1.43 · total 2.90. High total: over 2.5 59%, BTTS 66%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 62%, odds 1.63 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: Greece U19 2–1 Norway U19. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.