Europe UEFA U19 Championship Qualification Sat 14 Nov 2026 · Stadion Beroe Full time

Bulgaria U19

WDLW

1–1

Half-time 0–1

Latvia U19

DDLWW

62%P(1)20%P(X)18%P(2)

λ home: 1.77
λ away: 0.79
Σλ total: 2.56
P(over 2.5): 53%
P(BTTS): 58%
Modal score: 1–0 13.7%

Bulgaria U19 vs Latvia U19 prediction & xG model: Bulgaria U19 to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Bulgaria U19 v Latvia U19: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBulgaria U19 to win✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Bulgaria U19 v Latvia U19 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (5 and 10 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Bulgaria U19 (home)	1.66	1.06	0.85	–
Latvia U19 (away)	1.38	1.00	0.75	–

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.06 × 0.85 ≈ –

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	2.00	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.02	55%
Blended total λ	2.56	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.77, λ_away = 0.79

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Bulgaria U19 λ = 1.77

017.1%

130.2%

226.7%

315.7%

47.0%

5+3.4%

Latvia U19 λ = 0.79

045.6%

135.8%

214.1%

33.7%

40.7%

5+0.1%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Bul \ Lat012345+

07.86.12.40.6··

114114.21.1··

2129.63.81.0··

37.25.62.20.6··

43.22.51.0···

5+1.61.2····

Σ home-win cells: 60.8%
Σ draw cells: 23.0%
Σ away-win cells: 16.3%
Most probable score: 1–0 · 13.7%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Bulgaria U19	–	64.0%	60.2%	62.4%
X Draw	–	18.0%	22.0%	19.7%
2 Latvia U19	–	18.0%	17.8%	17.9%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.071 → 7.1% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Bulgaria U19 pick	62.4%	1.60	1.55	64.5%	-3.2%
X · Draw	19.7%	5.08	4.25	23.5%	-16.4%
2 · Latvia U19	17.9%	5.58	5.25	19.0%	-6.0%
Double chance
1X	82.1%	1.22	1.13	88.5%	-7.2%
X2	37.6%	2.66	2.38	42.0%	-10.6%
12	80.3%	1.24	1.19	84.0%	-4.4%
Draw no bet
DNB Bulgaria U19	77.7%	1.29	–	–	–
DNB Latvia U19	22.3%	4.49	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	75.6%	1.32	1.15	87.0%	-13.0%
Under 1.5	24.4%	4.11	4.30	23.3%	+4.7%
Over 2.5	52.5%	1.90	1.61	62.1%	-15.4%
Under 2.5	47.5%	2.11	2.23	44.8%	+5.8%
Over 3.5	31.3%	3.19	2.43	41.2%	-23.9%
Under 3.5	68.7%	1.46	1.44	69.4%	-1.1%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	57.9%	1.73	1.67	59.9%	-3.3%
BTTS no	42.1%	2.37	2.08	48.1%	-12.4%
Half-time
HT 1	42.9%	2.33	–	–	–
HT X	41.9%	2.39	–	–	–
HT 2	15.2%	6.57	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBulgaria U19 to win

Probability62.4%

Fair odds1.60

Best odds1.55

EV per unit-3.2%

EV = 0.624 × 1.55 − 1 = -0.032 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Bulgaria U19	Latvia U19
Sequence	WLDW	WWLDDW
Matches	4	6
W-D-L	2-1-1	3-2-1
Points per match	1.75	1.83
Goals for / match	2.00	1.50
Goals against / match	0.50	1.00
Over 2.5	25%	50%
BTTS	25%	67%
Clean sheets	50%	17%
Failed to score	25%	33%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Bulgaria U19 at 62%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.

Form

Sequence for Bulgaria U19: W L D W, so two victories in four. Latest: 6–0 at home to Gibraltar U19. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.

Latvia U19 have three wins from their last six (W W L D D W). Latest: 3–1 at home to Moldova U19. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Bulgaria U19 1.77 · Latvia U19 0.79 · total 2.56. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 58%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Bulgaria U19 to win, probability 62%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: Bulgaria U19 1–0 Latvia U19. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.