Europe UEFA U19 Championship Qualification Sat 14 Nov 2026 · Stadion Wiener Neustadt Full time

Austria U19

LWWLL

6–0

Half-time 1–0

Slovenia U19

LLWL

65%P(1)20%P(X)14%P(2)

λ home: 2.24
λ away: 0.97
Σλ total: 3.21
P(over 2.5): 60%
P(BTTS): 61%
Modal score: 2–0 10.1%

Austria U19 vs Slovenia U19 prediction & xG model: Austria U19 to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Austria U19 v Slovenia U19: how the Arena called it

Full time: 6–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipAustria U19 to win✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Austria U19 v Slovenia U19 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (8 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Austria U19 (home)	1.66	1.02	1.55	–
Slovenia U19 (away)	1.38	0.82	0.79	–

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.02 × 1.55 ≈ –

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	3.50	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.97	55%
Blended total λ	3.21	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.24, λ_away = 0.97

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Austria U19 λ = 2.24

010.7%

123.9%

226.7%

319.9%

411.1%

5+7.6%

Slovenia U19 λ = 0.97

037.7%

136.8%

217.9%

35.8%

41.4%

5+0.3%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Aus \ Slo012345+

04.03.91.90.6··

19.08.84.31.4··

2109.84.81.6··

37.57.33.61.2··

44.24.12.00.6··

5+2.92.81.4···

Σ home-win cells: 65.9%
Σ draw cells: 19.0%
Σ away-win cells: 15.2%
Most probable score: 2–0 · 10.1%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Austria U19	–	69.0%	60.0%	65.2%
X Draw	–	19.0%	22.1%	20.3%
2 Slovenia U19	–	12.0%	17.9%	14.5%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.076 → 7.6% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Austria U19 pick	65.2%	1.53	1.55	64.5%	+1.1%
X · Draw	20.3%	4.92	4.20	23.8%	-14.7%
2 · Slovenia U19	14.5%	6.91	5.20	19.2%	-24.8%
Double chance
1X	85.5%	1.17	1.13	88.5%	-3.4%
X2	34.8%	2.87	2.33	42.9%	-18.9%
12	79.7%	1.25	1.20	83.3%	-4.4%
Draw no bet
DNB Austria U19	81.8%	1.22	–	–	–
DNB Slovenia U19	18.2%	5.51	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	80.6%	1.24	1.16	86.2%	-6.5%
Under 1.5	19.4%	5.15	4.15	24.1%	-19.4%
Over 2.5	59.6%	1.68	1.64	61.0%	-2.3%
Under 2.5	40.4%	2.47	2.17	46.1%	-12.3%
Over 3.5	38.1%	2.62	2.49	40.2%	-5.0%
Under 3.5	61.9%	1.62	1.42	70.4%	-12.2%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	61.4%	1.63	1.68	59.5%	+3.2%
BTTS no	38.6%	2.59	2.03	49.3%	-21.7%
Half-time
HT 1	48.4%	2.06	–	–	–
HT X	35.8%	2.79	–	–	–
HT 2	15.8%	6.34	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickAustria U19 to win

Probability65.2%

Fair odds1.53

Best odds1.55

EV per unit+1.1%

EV = 0.652 × 1.55 − 1 = +0.011 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.020 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.5% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Austria U19	Slovenia U19
Sequence	LLWWLW	LWLL
Matches	6	4
W-D-L	3-0-3	1-0-3
Points per match	1.50	0.75
Goals for / match	1.17	0.75
Goals against / match	1.33	2.50
Over 2.5	50%	75%
BTTS	17%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	33%	50%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Austria U19 at 65%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Austria U19 2nd on 4, Slovenia U19 4th on 0.

Form

Sequence for Austria U19: L L W W L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to Belarus U19. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Sequence for Slovenia U19: L W L L, so one victory in four. Latest: 1–4 at home to England U19. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Austria U19 2.24 · Slovenia U19 0.97 · total 3.21. High total: over 2.5 60%, BTTS 61%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Austria U19 to win, probability 65%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: Austria U19 2–0 Slovenia U19. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.