- λ home
- 0.03
- λ away
- 0.64
- Σλ total
- 0.67
- P(over 2.5)
- 3%
- P(BTTS)
- 38%
- Modal score
- 0–0 51.2%
Minerul Lupeni vs Uta Arad prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Minerul Lupeni v Uta Arad: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNot both teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Minerul Lupeni v Uta Arad are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (21 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minerul Lupeni (home) | 1.66 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| Uta Arad (away) | 1.38 | 1.08 | 0.64 | 0.95 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.78 × 0.74 ≈ 0.95
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.90 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 0.67 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 0.67 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.03, λaway = 0.64
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 1.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 52.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 46.5%
- Most probable score
- 0–0 · 51.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minerul Lupeni | 33.2% | 18.0% | 15.0% | 16.7% |
| X Draw | 33.5% | 18.0% | 25.0% | 20.9% |
| 2 Uta Arad | 33.2% | 64.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Minerul Lupeni | 16.7% | 5.97 | 6.00 | 16.7% | +0.4% | |
| X · Draw | 20.9% | 4.78 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -24.6% | |
| 2 · Uta Arad | 62.3% | 1.60 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -6.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 37.7% | 2.65 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -9.6% | |
| X2 | 83.3% | 1.20 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -7.6% | |
| 12 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -1.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Minerul Lupeni | 21.2% | 4.72 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Uta Arad | 78.8% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 14.5% | 6.88 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 85.5% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 3.1% | 32.69 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 96.9% | 1.03 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 0.5% | 200.00 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 99.5% | 1.00 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 38.2% | 2.61 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -31.2% | |
| BTTS no pick | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +18.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 0.9% | 113.02 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 74.7% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.4% | 4.10 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.618 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.180 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.197 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Minerul Lupeni | Uta Arad |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDLW | WDLDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 83% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Uta Arad 62%, Minerul Lupeni 17%.
Form
Sequence for Minerul Lupeni: W W W D L W, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Academica Balș. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Uta Arad have one win from their last six (W D L D L D). Latest: 3–1 away at FCSB. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Minerul Lupeni 0.03 · Uta Arad 0.64 · total 0.67. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 97%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Not both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: Minerul Lupeni 0–1 Uta Arad. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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FCSB5Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Minerul Lupeni vs Uta Arad?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Minerul Lupeni v Uta Arad probabilities?
Minerul Lupeni win 17%, draw 21%, Uta Arad win 62%.
What is the most probable score for Minerul Lupeni vs Uta Arad?
Minerul Lupeni 0–1 Uta Arad is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Minerul Lupeni vs Uta Arad?
Minerul Lupeni 0.03, Uta Arad 0.64 – over 2.5 at 3%, BTTS at 38%.
What time is Minerul Lupeni vs Uta Arad?
Wednesday 2 September 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Stadion Minerul – Cupa României.