- λ home
- 0.67
- λ away
- 0.66
- Σλ total
- 1.33
- P(over 2.5)
- 15%
- P(BTTS)
- 42%
- Modal score
- 0–0 26.4%
Gloria Bistriţa vs Csikszereda prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Gloria Bistriţa v Csikszereda: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNot both teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Gloria Bistriţa v Csikszereda are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (30 and 28 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gloria Bistriţa (home) | 1.66 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 1.37 |
| Csikszereda (away) | 1.38 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.73 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.92 × 0.90 ≈ 1.37
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.10 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.33 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 1.33 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.67, λaway = 0.66
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 39.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.0%
- Most probable score
- 0–0 · 26.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Gloria Bistriţa | 51.2% | 39.0% | 37.2% | 38.3% |
| X Draw | 29.4% | 19.0% | 30.8% | 24.0% |
| 2 Csikszereda | 19.3% | 42.0% | 31.9% | 37.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Gloria Bistriţa | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -8.2% | |
| X · Draw | 24.0% | 4.17 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -30.5% | |
| 2 · Csikszereda | 37.8% | 2.65 | 2.80 | 35.7% | +5.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -15.4% | |
| X2 | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -7.4% | |
| 12 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.36 | 73.5% | +3.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Gloria Bistriţa | 50.3% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Csikszereda | 49.7% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 38.4% | 2.61 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 61.6% | 1.62 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 15.0% | 6.67 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 85.0% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 4.6% | 21.67 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 95.4% | 1.05 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 42.0% | 2.38 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -23.2% | |
| BTTS no pick | 58.0% | 1.72 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +7.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 19.9% | 5.04 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 60.6% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.6% | 5.11 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.580 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.074 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.087 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Gloria Bistriţa | Csikszereda |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLDLWW | LLDDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 38 / 24 / 38% for home, draw, away.
Form
Gloria Bistriţa, last six: W L D L W W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to CSM Satu Mare. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Csikszereda, last six: L L D D L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 2–3 at home to CFR 1907 Cluj. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Gloria Bistriţa 0.67 · Csikszereda 0.66 · total 1.33. Low total: under 2.5 85%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Not both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Gloria Bistriţa 1–0 Csikszereda. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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FCSB5Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Gloria Bistriţa vs Csikszereda?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Gloria Bistriţa v Csikszereda probabilities?
Gloria Bistriţa win 38%, draw 24%, Csikszereda win 38%.
What is the most probable score for Gloria Bistriţa vs Csikszereda?
Gloria Bistriţa 1–0 Csikszereda is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Gloria Bistriţa vs Csikszereda?
Gloria Bistriţa 0.67, Csikszereda 0.66 – over 2.5 at 15%, BTTS at 42%.
What time is Gloria Bistriţa vs Csikszereda?
Wednesday 2 September 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Stadionul Jean Padureanu – Cupa României.