Romania Cupa României Wed 2 Sep 2026 · Stadionul Municipal Full time

FC Botosani

DLWWD

0–1

Half-time 0–1

Corvinul Hunedoara

DWWDD

43%P(1)23%P(X)34%P(2)

λ home: 2.36
λ away: 2.14
Σλ total: 4.50
P(over 2.5): 83%
P(BTTS): 64%
Modal score: 2–2 7.1%

FC Botosani vs Corvinul Hunedoara prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

FC Botosani v Corvinul Hunedoara: how the Arena called it

Full time: 0–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for FC Botosani v Corvinul Hunedoara are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (28 and 33 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
FC Botosani (home)	1.66	1.16	0.64	1.23
Corvinul Hunedoara (away)	1.38	0.96	0.88	1.16

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.16 × 0.64 ≈ 1.23

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.39	64%
Statistical xG feed	4.50	36%
Blended total λ	4.50	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.36, λ_away = 2.14

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

FC Botosani λ = 2.36

09.4%

122.2%

226.3%

320.7%

412.2%

5+9.1%

Corvinul Hunedoara λ = 2.14

011.8%

125.2%

226.9%

319.2%

410.2%

5+6.6%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

FC \ Cor012345+

01.12.42.51.81.00.6

12.65.66.04.32.31.5

23.16.67.15.02.71.7

32.45.25.64.02.11.4

41.43.13.32.31.30.8

5+1.12.32.51.80.90.6

Σ home-win cells: 44.4%
Σ draw cells: 19.6%
Σ away-win cells: 36.0%
Most probable score: 2–2 · 7.1%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 FC Botosani	37.0%	45.0%	39.6%	42.7%
X Draw	29.2%	18.0%	29.7%	22.9%
2 Corvinul Hunedoara	33.8%	37.0%	30.7%	34.4%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · FC Botosani	42.7%	2.34	2.25	44.4%	-3.9%
X · Draw	22.9%	4.36	3.00	33.3%	-31.3%
2 · Corvinul Hunedoara	34.4%	2.91	2.90	34.5%	-0.4%
Double chance
1X	65.6%	1.52	1.36	73.5%	-10.7%
X2	57.3%	1.75	1.55	64.5%	-11.2%
12	77.1%	1.30	1.33	75.2%	+2.5%
Draw no bet
DNB FC Botosani	55.4%	1.80	–	–	–
DNB Corvinul Hunedoara	44.6%	2.24	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	93.9%	1.07	–	–	–
Under 1.5	6.1%	16.37	–	–	–
Over 2.5	82.6%	1.21	–	–	–
Under 2.5	17.4%	5.76	–	–	–
Over 3.5	65.8%	1.52	–	–	–
Under 3.5	34.2%	2.92	–	–	–
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	64.1%	1.56	1.80	55.6%	+15.4%
BTTS no	35.9%	2.79	1.91	52.4%	-31.5%
Half-time
HT 1	37.1%	2.69	–	–	–
HT X	31.0%	3.22	–	–	–
HT 2	31.8%	3.14	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability64.1%

Fair odds1.56

Best odds1.80

EV per unit+15.4%

EV = 0.641 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.154 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.193 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	FC Botosani	Corvinul Hunedoara
Sequence	DWWLDL	DDWWDD
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	2-2-2	2-4-0
Points per match	1.33	1.67
Goals for / match	1.17	1.33
Goals against / match	1.00	0.67
Over 2.5	50%	33%
BTTS	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Failed to score	33%	33%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

FC Botosani ahead at 43%, against 34% for Corvinul Hunedoara and 23% for the draw.

Form

FC Botosani, last six: D W W L D L – two wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Farul Constanta. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Corvinul Hunedoara have two wins from their last six (D D W W D D). Latest: 1–1 at home to Dinamo Bucuresti. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (Aug 2026): FC Botosani 0–0 Corvinul Hunedoara. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG FC Botosani 2.36 · Corvinul Hunedoara 2.14 · total 4.50. Goals expected – 83% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.56. Most probable score: FC Botosani 2–1 Corvinul Hunedoara. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.